Plenty of Americans in action including Frances Tiafoe, who has been a proven performer at the US Open over the last few years.
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Best Bet
Nishioka is here for the paycheck. The Japanese is 1-12 since February this year and has won a total of three sets over the last 13 matches.
Tiafoe is a proven performer at his home major, and loves playing in front of the New York crowd.
There’s no way the American will flirt with form this early in the tournament, and this will be a regulation win for the world number 17.
Next Best
Showed enough in his return to tennis at Winston Salem where he made the Semi Final to suggest he should be able to advance in this first-round match with Cam Norrie.
Korda has played well against the Brit across his career with a 3-1 record despite being ranked lower on all four occasions – the only win Norrie recorded was in a third-set tie-break at Delray Beach in 2022.
Norrie has struggled since his Quarter Final run at Wimbledon. He lost in the first-round of both Canada and Cincinnati, and is now 9-12 on hard court this year. We saw 90% of winners cover on Day 1, so if the trends are consistent Korda shouldn’t have any issues.
Another I’ll back in on the Day 1 coverage trends, with young gun Joao Fonseca facing Miomir Kecmanovic.
Fonseca hasn’t quite lived up to the hype in 2025, but he’s still 19-6 on hard courts including 11-4 against top-100 opposition.
Kecmanovic definitely has the experience on his side, but he’s been poor this year with a 13-12 hard court record against the top-100. The numbers are in the Brazilian’s favour, and early in the tournament I expect to see his best.
A fairly strong hard court year for Kudermetova at 20-11 including a Round of 16 run at the Australian Open, and reaching the Semi Final at Cincinnati in the lead-up.
She’s a great head-to-head price all things considered when she faces world number 147 Janice Tjen, which is due to the Indonesian’s incredible record of 53-7 for the year – but the damage has been done on the challenger circuit.
From Tjen’s 60 matches this year, she’s only played one player inside the top-100 which was in qualifying during the week – that being said, I still wouldn’t call it a scalp with that opponent still ranked outside the top-80. Kudermetova is ranked inside the top-30 and on recent form shouldn’t have too many issues in this.
Elena Rybakina is potentially one of the worst opponents you could possibly face as a 16-year-old wildcard at your first major, but that’s the scenario for Julieta Pareja.
The American is ranked 338 in the world, and hasn’t played a WTA event of any level since May.
Rybakina had a similar situation at the Australian Open where she faced the number one Australian junior Emerson Jones who was ranked 293 at the time – the Kazakh won 6-1 6-1. I think this could be uglier and would look for alternate handicap markets up to -10.5.
Value Bet
Australian Adam Walton is in career form. The 26-year-old is a career-best 82 in the world, and has produced some strong results beating Medvedev and Bonzi in the lead-up.
He faces Ugo Humbert – the Frenchman has been hurt for most of 2025 and now he’s also out of form. The world number 22 lost to Gael Monfils in the first-round of Wimbledon, a surface he generally excels on, and has only played two matches since – the most recent losing to Tiafoe in straight sets.
Fitness is key when playing at Flushing Meadows, and Humbert hasn’t been close to full fitness for a long time now. I think the Australian can cause a major upset on Day 2.
Multi
Korda (M) / Tiafoe (M) / Khachanov (M) / Fonseca (M) / Samsonova (W) / Bouzkova (W) = $4.80
