Two huge women’s Semi Finals featuring two Americans in front of their home crowd, and two of the biggest names of international tennis.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
I think Pegula is playing the better tennis of the two, with Sabalenka’s tournament somewhat underwhelming. The world number one is going at a serve and return percentage of 110.9%, while the American is going at 119.8% – a significant advantage.
A key trend that we’ve identified though is Sabalenka overs at majors, in particular in Semi Finals. The Belarussian has gone overs in 13 of her last 14 Grand Slam matches, but it’s her performances in Slam Semi Finals which are slightly concerning if you’re in the Aryna camp.
Sabalenka has played in 12 Grand Slam Semi Finals – 11 of those as favourite. Her record is just 6-6 though, with 11 of those 12 going over the total games, and covering the game handicap on just two of those occasions.
This is a rematch of last year’s US Open Final where the 7-5 7-5 scoreline flattered Pegula – but could she possibly turn the tables at odds in this?
Naomi Osaka vs Amanda Anisimova
Hard to split this pair, which makes the logical bet over total games when Naomi Osaka faces Amanda Anisimova.
Osaka has a slight edge in the serve and return percentage this US Open at 115.4% against the 114.9% of Anisimova – Naomi has the Coco Gauff scalp, while the American just redeemed her Wimbledon disaster with straight sets win over Swiatek.
Anisimova has a 2-0 head-to-head advantage from their meetings at the Australian Open and Roland Garros in 2022 – both matches going over games, including a third set tiebreak at the Australian Open.
Eight of the last ten women’s Semi Finals at the US Open have gone over the total games line, and with how tight this contest is on paper I’d prefer to back this in to go the distance opposed to pick an outcome.
Multi
Sabalenka / Osaka (W) = $2.32
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