Alex De Minaur is on the verge of his first Semi Final at a major, but the in-form Felix Auger Aliassime stands in his way who is looking to claim his third consecutive scalp.
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Best Bet
I don’t mind the Canadian at the match line in this paying $2.28 and happy to take both that and the 2.5 game head start.
Felix Auger Aliassime is putting together one of his best majors runs with wins over Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev. He now faces Australian Alex De Minaur, who he’s had success against on hard courts over their career.
FAA leads the head-to-head 3-2, but is 3-0 on hard courts with De Minaur winning both of their clay court encounters. De Minaur is the favourite in this purely on the rankings it appears, but the Australian has had a dream run to the Quarter Finals and hasn’t been challenged yet in the slightest with all four of his opponents outside the top-50 and most of them playing injured.
I think the match hardened FAA will have too many weapons and is in the better form leading into this Quarter Final.
Next Best
After the humiliation of a double bagel in the Wimbledon Final, Anisimova gets the chance to face her Swiatek demons much sooner than anticipated in this Quarter Final.
But how could you possibly take the American in any capacity based on the performance two months ago. Understand Anisimova was nervous heading into her first Grand Slam Final, but I can’t see the nerves settling any in this matchup with the Wimbledon narrative in front of her home crowd.
Swiatek is 6-1 against top-10 opposition on hard court this year, covering the -4.5 game handicap in four of the last five. I just don’t know how Anisimova will be able to turn the tables that dramatically, and you simply have to side with Swiatek based on that Wimbledon Final.
Value Bet
Naomi Osaka wins this Quarter Final. This is the best tennis the Japanese has played since 2021 where she won the Australian Open, and her performance against Gauff was probably the best of any player this US Open.
Osaka won an incredible 32 of 38 service points against the American, who is one of the best returners of serve on the WTA Tour.
She now faces Karolina Muchova who has limped into the Quarter Finals with four consecutive three set wins. The Czech plays in her fair share of three setters, and looking at her record against Osaka which is all square at 2-2, three of those matches have gone the distance including this year’s Australian Open.
Osaka is playing too well to drop this, but don’t be surprised if Muchova forces the decider.
Multi
Auger Aliassime (M) / Sinner(M) / Swiatek (W) / Osaka (W) = $4.34
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