Novak Djokovic leads Taylor Fritz 10-0 across their career – this might be the best opportunity the American has had at his home major. Can he cause the upset?
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Best Bet
Once Barbora Krejcikova gets momentum into the second week of a major, she’s capable of going all the way as proven by French Open and Wimbledon titles.
I cannot believe we’re getting north of $3 for the Czech against Jessica Pegula – taking nothing away from the American, she’s been outstanding so far this US Open but this is another level.
Pegula won their most recent match-up at a major at the 2023 Australian Open, but since then Krejcikova has won both matches including last year at the WTA Finals, and it’s been dominant by the Czech. I love the match line for Krejcikova in this, and am very confident she covers this game handicap.
Next Best
This contest will be much tighter than the odds suggest, with the head-to-head record between this pair slightly in Sabalenka’s favour at 5-4.
The serve and return percentage numbers over these matches are pretty much level dating back to 2017, but it’s the hard court matches where Sabalenka has the edge winning their last four meetings on the surface.
This being said, Sabalenka has not quite been at her best this year at the majors which leaves the door ajar for someone of Vondrousova’s talent. The world number one has played 16 matches against top-60 opposition at majors this year – from those matches, she’s failed to cover in 12 of those matches while 13 of those 16 matches have gone overs.
Vondrousova is playing at a high level emphasised by her performance against Rybakina, while Sabalenka is slightly off. This goes the distance.
Value Bet
I’m going to ignore the head-to-head record in this, purely because Djokovic has been playing sore the last two matches – and now he faces someone that’s talented enough to beat him.
Taylor Fritz opened at $2.65 and has already been crunched into $2.31. He had not set the world on fire in the early rounds, but Fritz’s performance against Machac was clinical which suggests he’s worked his way into the tournament nicely.
Let’s see if Fritz has the tennis smarts to make Djokovic work for this – if so, he should be able to break down the Serbian’s game who is barely playing at 80% fitness at the moment. But if he tries to do the exact same thing as the last 10 occasions they’ve met, then it could be a wasted opportunity for the American.
Multi
Djokovic vs Fritz Over 3.5 Sets (M) / Krejcikova +4.5 (W) = $2.52
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