US Open is known to have some big upsets in the early rounds – is it possible that Novak Djokovic could be a casualty on Day 1?
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Best Bet
It’s a nightmare opening round for an underdone Djokovic who hasn’t played any tennis (outside of mixed doubles) since Wimbledon where he played hurt.
The Serbian will face American rising star Learner Tien, who has moved inside the top-50 and can cause a few issues against quality opposition – he did beat Medvedev at the Australian Open at the start of the year, and is 4-3 against top-20 opposition this year including 3-1 on hard courts.
Djokovic is a slow starter early in majors – he needed four sets to get past Muller in the first round of Wimbledon, while also dropping a set in the first-round of the Australian Open to another young American in Basavareddy.
Tien winning at least one set will see this go overs.
Next Best
Get the popcorn out! Medvedev couldn’t believe how Bonzi played against him in the first-round of Wimbledon with the Frenchman upsetting the Russian, and now we get another first-round clash between the pair.
“Why not play like this every day, win millions, be rich? No, he decides to do it once a year” Medvedev said post-game regarding Bonzi, so there’s definitely now some spice to future matchups between the two – just didn’t expect it to be the next major.
Medvedev has had a shocking 2025 by his standards and is just 3-3 in the lead-in to the US Open on hard courts, failing to beat anyone inside the top 70. Bonzi has troubled the Russian on three occasions now, so I think this could go to four or five sets.
I don’t think much of Shevchenko’s game, but he’s actually recorded some wins leading into Flushing Meadows – but the real reason I’m taking the Kazakh on the plus handicap is because of the physical state of Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
The Spaniard retired in Cincinnati against Fonseca, after retiring the week prior in Canada against Rublev.
Davidovich Fokina has played some great tennis this year but it’s been a hectic schedule especially of late and it’s taken its toll – both physically and mentally, which included reaching the Final at Washington where he couldn’t secure Championship points against De Minaur.
Health is so important for a tournament like the US Open, and it’s hard to see ADF covering such a long line with his recent issues.
A fairly strong hard court year for Kudermetova at 20-11 including a Round of 16 run at the Australian Open, and reaching the Semi Final at Cincinnati in the lead-up.
She’s a great head-to-head price all things considered when she faces world number 147 Janice Tjen, which is due to the Indonesian’s incredible record of 53-7 for the year – but the damage has been done on the challenger circuit.
From Tjen’s 60 matches this year, she’s only played one player inside the top-100 which was in qualifying during the week – that being said, I still wouldn’t call it a scalp with that opponent still ranked outside the top-80. Kudermetova is ranked inside the top-30 and on recent form shouldn’t have too many issues in this.
Huge opportunity for Bencic to solidify on her efforts at Wimbledon where she reached the Semi Final in the easiest quarter of the draw.
Bencic has played well at the US Open across her career, and will face 36-year-old Shuai Zhang.
The Chinese has been great this year on hard court with a 15-3 record, but another that’s done her damage on the challenger circuit. She hasn’t faced anyone inside the top-100 since February which she lost to the world number 67, 6-2 6-1.
The Swiss should be too strong and cover in this.
Value Bet
It wasn’t long ago when I thought the veteran Frenchman was done, but Adrian Mannarino has restored his career off the back of a strong grass court season.
Mannarino went through qualifying at Cincinnati to advance to the Round of 16, making a contest of it against Sinner, where he recorded the scalps of Tommy Paul and Tomas Machac along the way.
His opponent in this is Tallon Griekspoor who is in horrible form of late. The Dutchman has won one of his last six matches, with his only win a 3-set battle against the world number 139 in Bastad. The US Open isn’t an easy tournament to transform your form in, so I think Mannarino will get the better of Griekspoor in this.
Multi
Nakashima (M) / Mensik (M) / Danilovic (F) / Kudermetova (W) / Bencic (W) / Tauson (W) = $5.32
