Can Carlos Alcaraz bounce back after the disappointment of losing the Wimbledon Final against arch rival Jannik Sinner?
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Champion
Potential question marks post Wimbledon with an extended break for Carlos Alcaraz, but wins over Rublev, Zverev and Sinner (by retirement) quashed that, and I think the Spaniard enters the US Open in the best shape of the contenders.
Only behind Sinner in terms of hard-court numbers for the year, but I have to favour the Spaniard at the price and the draw. Although Medvedev does feature in Alcaraz’s quarter, there’s no guarantee he goes far with how poor form he’s been in, with Ben Shelton the only real threat.
Realistically, we’re now in flip a coin between Sinner and Alcaraz areas each Grand Slam now – like the Spaniard in this one.
Runner Up
A tricky second quarter with a number of threats – but I think Zverev advances against the likes of Khachanov, De Minaur and Rublev.
There’s absolutely no danger of Zverev showing up in the Final if he does make it, hence the $21 price tag, but the German is an opponent that Sinner won’t want to face in the Semi Final.
More so a bet to win the second quarter as he doesn’t have the mental aptitude to win the whole thing.
Semi Finalists
The retirement in the Final at Cincinnati was illness based and not physical which is not as concerning, but it’s still not ideal for Sinner at this price.
Also not in Sinner’s favour is the Wimbledon / US Open double form-line, with Djokovic being the only player to do the double in the last 13 years in 2015 and 2018.
The Italian shouldn’t have any troubles on paper with his draw – but it’s not easy. Popyrin in the second-round who beat Djokovic at last year’s US Open, with the potential of former champion Cilic in the Round of 16, and then Draper in the quarters.
Think we’ll see a similar price to this if he makes the Final, so it’s a hold.
I have a funny feeling about the Dane. 16-9 on hard courts this year which includes reaching the Final at Indian Wells, but Rune is 4-2 against top-20 on the surface this year and features in the easiest quarter of the draw.
Health is your best friend when you enter Flushing Meadows off the back of a marathon of a year, which provides question marks over Djokovic and Tiafoe who will be in Rune’s path to the Quarter Finals.
Last year’s Finalist Taylor Fritz is the danger in the third quarter, but I think the Dane can surprise and reach the Semis here.
Roughies
Is a strong performer at majors across his career and enters Flushing Meadows in stellar form.
Khachanov reached the Final in Montreal in the lead-up including a Semi Final win over Zverev, while also reaching the Wimbledon Quarter Final prior to that.
Was a Semi Finalist here in 2022, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he advanced from the second quarter based on how the Russian has been playing.
Not enormous value, but cannot believe that Taylor Fritz is listed as the seventh favourite this US Open despite featuring in the easiest quarter.
Fritz made the Final here last year, and has been in good form the back-end of 2025 with a Semi Final run at Wimbledon, plus a Semi Final run in the lead-up at Montreal.
Would need Alcaraz to fall over unexpectedly in the second half for any chance of reaching the Final, but another Semi Final is not out of the realms of possibility.
