Can Carlos Alcaraz defend his French Open title from last year as the short price favourite at Roland Garros in 2025?
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Champion
He’s short but it’s hard not to see the Spaniard holding up his second consecutive trophy at Roland Garros.
Features in the weak half of the draw where he’s managed to avoid Djokovic, Sinner, Zverev, Draper, and Cerundolo, with Casper Ruud the only real threat in the fourth quarter and I can’t see the Norwegian challenge Alcaraz here.
15-1 on clay this year with wins at Monte Carlo and Rome, he’s going to be tough to beat.
Runner Up
Returned to Rome off the back of his drug suspension and still managed to get by some quality opposition to reach the Final, where he eventually lost to Alcaraz.
More a tricky draw than a tough one for Sinner – Davidovich-Fokina has played well this year but is also prone to the odd stinker, while the likes of Fils, De Minaur, Draper, Rublev, Mensik and Hurkacz are all decent, but still a long way off the level of Sinner.
Can see the Italian reaching the Final, but can’t see him getting past Alcaraz off a limited lead-up.
Semi Finalists
A sensational price for the Argentine. Francisco Cerundolo isn’t just one of the form clay-court players this year – he’s been great on all surfaces with a 27-12 record year-to-date.
Cerundolo is 19-8 on clay in the lead-up playing the most matches on the red dirt in 2025 of the top-50 players.
The Argentine has beaten Zverev twice on clay this lead-up, and will likely meet the German in the Round of 16. If he can make it three straight wins over Zverev, it’s likely Djokovic who he took to five sets in the Round of 16 at Roland Garros last year.
He’ll be better for the experience and a real dark-horse this tournament.
Potential has been there for a long-time, but the Italian has now moved inside the top-10 off the back of a strong clay-court season.
Lorenzo Musetti is 14-3 on clay this year, which includes reaching the Final at Monte Carlo, and the Semis in Madrid and Rome.
In Musetti’s favour is that he features in the third quarter – by far the easiest of the four. Holger Rune is the real danger, but assuming he can get past the Dane he’s on track for the Semi Finals.
Roughies
I’ll make this clear – Darderi is not going to win the French Open, but the young Italian has been solid on clay in 2025 with a 16-10 record.
Now ranked 45 in the world, the 23-year-old will face Seb Korda in the opening round who is just 3-4 on clay this year – if he can beat the American, his draw opens right up in the weakest quarter.
Even if Fritz reaches the Round of 16 (I don’t think he does), Darderi is capable of getting past the American there too – so he’s a big chance of making the Quarters here, which makes the price of $20 to win Quarter 3 great value.
The Frenchman in front of his home crowd could shock the world with an upset win over Jannik Sinner in the Round of 16, and if he does that then there’s a nice path to the Semis Finals for Arthur Fils.
Ranked 14 in the world, the 20-year-old has played well on clay this year with an 8-4 record, with two of those losses to Alcaraz – one in the Quarters at Monte Carlo, the other the Semis of Barcelona.
Probably the biggest threat to Sinner in the first quarter.
