
Stan Wawrinka will play in his last French Open – can the 2015 Champion cause the upset to advance to the second round?
Best Bet
Jasmine Paolini is really struggling in 2026. The Italian own a 11-10 record, which includes being 6-9 against top-100 and 1-6 against top-50.
Her opponent here Dayana Yastremska is ranked just inside that top-50, and enters Roland Garros in reasonable form winning the WTA-125 event in Parma, which included four wins over top-100 opposition.
Although the Ukrainian is just 13-13 on the year, she is 7-4 on clay and can cause real issues here against the out of form Italian.
Next Best
The Hungarian is putting together a solid 2026, with a 16-13 record including 9-5 on clay – one of those wins against her first-round opponent, Elina Svitolina.
Svitolina has been very impressive in the lead-up, hence the short price in this, with an 8-2 clay record, with Bondar one of those losses.
Bondar has played well against Svitolina across their career. The Hungarian beat her in the first round of last year’s US Open, and when they played at the French Open last year the Ukrainian won 7-6 7-5 – anything close to this, and Bondar covers this large game handicap.
The 20-year-old Croatian enters the first round of Roland Garros with strong clay form, winning in Rabat in the lead-up including two top-100 scalps.
Eva Lys on the other hand has really struggled in 2026. The German has a 3-8 record, including 2-5 on clay, and although she’s been somewhat competitive lately with three of those losses going to three sets, she’s still struggling to record wins.
I think Marcinko can continue to inflict more pain on the German here.
She’s always been quite strong on clay, and despite Teichmann’s ranking dropping outside the top-200, she’s looked solid since returning from her seven-month layoff.
Teichmann is 6-5 since her return in April, including going 3-2 against top-100 opposition.
Her opponent in the first round is Samsonova, who has hard a real hard time this year. The Russian is 7-12 on the year, including going 3-4 on clay. The red dirt has never been the big serving Russian’s surface of choice, and this could get tricky.
Taken his time to get back, but Hubert Hurkacz showed enough in the clay court lead-up with a strong showing at Monte Carlo, while reaching the Final in the challenger in Cagliari – which still involved three top-100 wins.
Juame Munar is his first round opponent, who hasn’t been outstanding this year with a 9-10 record.
The Spaniard is 4-5 on clay in the lead-up, but only 2-4 against top-100 opposition on the surface. As for the Pole, he’s shown glimpses lately that he’s getting back to his best and the big Hurkacz serve should see him advance to the second round.
Value Bet
Surprised to see Stan Wawrinka as an underdog in this against Jesper De Jong, who is 10-15 on the year but just 5-11 against top-150 in the world in 2026.
Wawrinka’s issue will be fitness and durability in this more than anything, and as a result I’m taking the Swiss legend to take the first set.
There’s no real trust in De Jong, and with this being Stan’s last French Open, the 2015 Champion will come out swinging early.
Multi
Rinderknech (M) / Lehecka (M) / Atmane (M) / Potapova (W) / Ostapenko (W) / Kessler (W) = $3.75
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