Tennis Tips - French Open Day 9 Tips

The draw has opened up nicely for a few players off the back of some first week upsets, with Matteo Berrettini back in-form after an injury-riddled couple of years.

Best Bet

Anastasia Potapova -3.5

Game Handicap

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$1.83

Potapova was our Day 7 value paying $4 when she upstaged Coco Gauff, and the Austrian can keep progressing through this French Open draw.

She faces Anna Kalinskaya who has had a fairly easy draw so far, but was somewhat fortunate to advance in her third-round match according to the numbers with a poor serve plus returning rating of 97.2 against the world 86.

Across the year, Potapova has a serve plus return rating of 108.6 on clay with a 16-3 record, while Kalinskaya is at just 100.3 going 7-3. I really expect Potapova to do a number on the Russian here.

Next Best

Cerundolo vs Berrettini Over 38.5

Total Games

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$1.80

There’s an ongoing trend that we’re seeing long matches this French Open, and I expect that to continue when Juan Manual Cerundolo faces Matteo Berrettini.

Of the last 20 men’s matches played, 17 have gone over the total games, and with how Cerundolo grinds on clay there’s no chance he gets blown away by Berrettini.

Both Berrettini and Cerundolo enter this off five set third-round matches, with both playing in plenty of sets that have gone to seven this tournament. I can see this going to at least four, and potentially the distance once again.

Value Bet

Alejandro Tabilo

Match

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$2.51

The Chilean has been really strong on clay all year, and the form has translated to Roland Garros.

Alejandro Tabilo is now 24-9 on the year on clay, with a serve plus returning rating of 107.5. As for Felix Auger Aliassime, despite moving into number 4 in the world this tournament, he’s 7-4 on clay this year with a serve plus return rating of 103.6 – significantly less than Tabilo.

The Canadian has been good enough to advance to the Round of 16, but he has struggled – two of those three wins producing a serve plus return rating of under 104 which is well under the average that we see for winners of 110. The clay court specialist in Tabilo is a huge chance here.

Multi

Cobolli (M) / Potapova (W) / Keys (W) / Sabalenka (W) = $3.11

Sports Journalist

Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.