Rublev has the toughest test in tennis against world number 1 Jannik Sinner, but he enters this well rested – what can the Russian produce?
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Best Bet
Just think Mirra Andreeva is a bit vulnerable in this Round of 16 clash, and although her results appear strong on paper her service and return points won numbers are very much average despite facing no one inside the top-30 this French Open.
Daria Kasatkina seems to save her best tennis for Roland Garros each year, and had a convincing win over Paula Badosa to advance to this stage.
The pair met in October last year in the Final at Ningbo on hard courts – the surface Andreeva appears to play her best tennis on which is quite the opposite for Kasatakina. But the Australian won 6-0 4-6 6-4, and going back on to the clay I think she can cause the world number 6 a few issues.
Next Best
Zverev and Griekspoor have played a mountain of tennis against each other over the last two years, with eight of their nine meetings across their career being played since the start of 2023.
The German leads head-to-head 7-2, but all eight matches since 2023 have been extremely tight.
The pair met in Munich six weeks back, with Zverev winning 6-7 7-6 6-4, while earlier in the year the Dutchman beat Zverev in Indian Wells 4-6 7-6 7-6. They also met at Roland Garros last year which went to five sets – Zverev winning in a fifth set tiebreak.
Their last seven matches have featured a tiebreak, while both players have won a set each in four of their last five. Griekspoor is clearly a difficult matchup for Zverev, so this will be tighter than the odds suggest.
Value Bet
Sinner looks like he hasn’t missed a beat, but against someone of Rublev’s calibre the match odds here are extremely short for the Italian.
The pair have met on nine occasions across their career with Sinner leading 6-3, but it’s never been regulation for the Italian. Their last two matches have gone to a deciding third set, while even though Sinner beat the Russian at the 2024 Australian Open in straight sets, it featured a second-set tiebreak.
Only once from the nine matches has it been a dominant win to Sinner, and with Rublev extremely well rested after Arthur Fils withdrew from their proposed third round match, he could start this match on fire and really take it to Sinner claiming a set early in the match.
Multi
Keys (W) / Kasatkina +5.5 (W) / Djokovic (M) / Draper (M) / Zverev vs Griekspoor Over 35.5 Games = $4.75
