Tennis Tips - French Open Day 8 Tips

As predicted on Day 7, we saw some big names fall once again. Will we see more on Day 8, with second favourite Casper Ruud in action?

Best Bet

Fonseca vs Ruud Over 38.5

Total Games

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$1.83

Casper Ruud has been good enough to get it done in the first three rounds, but hasn’t been outstanding – his third-round match with Tommy Paul, the Norwegian had a serve plus return rating of under 100, which has now happened twice from his three matches this tournament.

As for Joao Fonseca, it’s a huge chance for him to make his move up the rankings after coming from two sets down to beat Djokovic – once again, this was a match where he lost the serve plus return rating.

Although Ruud hasn’t shown any signs of fatigue since his first-round medical incident, he most definitely won’t be entering at 100% – which opens the door for the Brazilian. With the number of tiebreaks we’re seeing this French Open, I do expect this going to at least four sets and as a result it should only require one tiebreak to cover the total games here.

Next Best

Andrey Rublev

Match

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$1.80

Huge third-round win by Jakub Mensik after being bageled in the first set by Alex De Minaur, and without taking anything away from the Czech it probably says more about the Australian and his inability to produce with any form of expectation, in what was really an unloseable match.

I’m confident Andrey Rublev won’t let this match be played on the Czech’s racquet, unlike what we saw from the passive De Minaur.

Although Mensik has a solid record against the Russian, both wins were played on hard courts. With the surface likely to start slowing down in line with the change in weather conditions, this should play into Rublev’s hands. Contrary to what De Minaur could not do, I expect Rublev to strike early and put his foot on the throat of Mensik recording an easy win against an opponent that must still be struggling from the full body cramp he endured only four days ago.

Value Bet

Belinda Bencic

Match

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$2.37

It appears Belinda Bencic is building nicely into this French Open, with the Swiss yet to drop a set.

She’s ranked third in the women’s draw for serve plus return rating at 119.3 – significantly stronger than Svitolina who is at 111.6. The Ukrainian had a real first round battle, and after that has won easily against two opponents ranked outside the top-90 – but her numbers are still not outstanding compared to what we’ve seen from Bencic.

Svitolina has won the last two matches against Bencic over the last 15 months, but I think the Swiss can turn the tables based on what we’re seeing this French Open – potentially the Ukrainian has run out of gas with a hot week in Paris, off the back of winning in Rome in the lead-up.

Multi

Rublev (M) / Swiatek (W) / Andreeva (W) / Cirstea (W) = $3.10

Sports Journalist

Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.