After a big third-round win, can Elena Rybakina dismantle the Queen of Roland Garros?
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Best Bet
Everyone has a bogey player – Iga Swiatek has Jelena Ostepenko, and Amanda Anisimova could be Aryna Sabalenka’s.
The Belarussian has really struggled against the American her entire career. Anisimova leads the head-to-head 5-2 and was the lower rank player on every occasion. The American is 3-1 on clay against Sabalenka, with the world number 1 winning their most recent clay court meeting in 2022, but she needed three sets.
Last time they met was August 2024 in Toronto when Anisimova was ranked 132 in the world – she beat Sabalenka in straight sets. Can she cause another major boilover in this Round of 16 clash and throw the draw into chaos?
Next Best
I know Svitolina beat Paolini earlier in the year at the Australian Open, but I feel there’s a big difference on clay.
The Ukrainian is 3-5 on clay against top-20 opposition since 2023, while the Italian is 7-4 which includes matches when she was ranked outside the top-50. The only players that have beaten Paolini over this period on clay are Sabalenka, Swiatek and Rybakina – the genuine heavy hitters that can blow her off the court.
Svitolina can strike the ball, but that’s mainly effective on the hard courts. Of all players remaining in the tournament Svitolina is ranked last for service and return points won, and I think the Italian can capitalise on the Ukrainian’s serve.
Value Bet
Elena Rybakina has been well below par the last 18 months, but she was dominant against Jelena Ostapenko and now sets up a huge clash with Iga Swiatek.
The Pole has also been well down on form over the last 12 months, and has struggled against Rybakina historically with their career record at 4 apiece.
Surprisingly, the two have met on clay twice from those eight matches and Rybakina won both – 2023 in Rome and 2024 in Stuttgart. For context, Swiatek was 45-4 on clay across 2023 and 2024 – Rybakina caused two of those four losses, with the Pole never recorded a clay court win over the Kazakh.
Can Rybakina make it three from three on the clay?
Multi
Paolini (W) / Qinwen (W) / Paul (M) / Musetti (M) = $5.10
