A former Roland Garros Champion enters her third-round match at long odds – can she cause a major upset on Day 6?
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Best Bet
Was shocked to see Tommy Paul as underdog in this third-round match with Karen Khachanov, as I had the American marked up at around $1.60 favourite in this.
All metrics on clay over the last 52 weeks are in Paul’s favour, and although the Russian has a better service points + return points won rating this French Open, Khachanov has been far from great and has failed to cover his game handicap in both matches this Roland Garros.
Paul has a 2-0 career head-to-head advantage over the Russian, which includes meeting on clay in Madrid in April, where the American won in three sets. He should get it done here.
Next Best
Lorenzo Musetti has been incredible this year and dominant so far at Roland Garros, but this will be his first test, with his first two opponents ranked outside the top-120.
Navone is more than handy operator on clay. Look past the ranking of 97 – the Argentine has a clay-court eLo ranking of 57, and over the last 52 weeks his service points and return points won rating against top-20 opposition on clay has him ranked 24th.
The Argentine is not good enough to beat Musetti in this – but more than capable of winning a set and challenging the Italian across the match.
The total games line looks slightly low for an Elina Svitolina contest.
The Ukrainian has a large sample size at Roland Garros to work with, and against opposition ranked 51-100 across her career at the French Open, 12 of her last 16 matches have gone over 18.5 games including her second-round match which was a grind for Svitolina.
Bernarda Pera has been serviceable on clay across her career, and both wins this French Open have been against players with strong pedigrees in Garcia and Vekic. I think the American can challenge Svitolina including a potential tiebreaker.
Value Bet
Just thrives off these situations as an underdog against a heavy hitter.
You could argue Jelena Ostapenko has been in better clay court form than Rybakina this year, with the Latvian winning Stuttgart in the lead-up with wins over both Sabalenka and Swiatek.
Although Rybakina is now 8-2 on clay this year, the form-line is nowhere near as strong, with the Kazakh below her lofty standards at majors over the last 18 months, including a number of coaching changes. Watch the erratic Latvian cause a big upset at a price.
Multi
Sabalenka (W) / Qinwen (W) / Anisimova (W) / Musetti (M) / Medjedovic (M) / Paul to win a set (M) = $4.00
