As we enter the second-round, the highly touted Dane Holger Rune faces a dangerous American opponent in a match that could go the distance.
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Best Bet
Only needed 13 games for Aryna Sabalenka to win her first-round match and I don’t think it will be much different against Teichmann.
The Swiss was highly touted on clay in 2022, but from 2023 to now she’s only 3-14 against top-100 opposition on the surface – specifically against top-75 from that, she’s 0-8.
When the two last met in 2022 when Teichmann was 41 in the world, Sabalenka won 6-2 6-1 – the Belarussian is much better now, and the Swiss much worse. Expect a similar score-line, if not worse.
Next Best
The Spaniard is nowhere near the player he once was, but still on this surface he’s tough to beat. The win over Comesana was a strong one considering the improvement of the clay-court specialist, and he now faces Frances Tiafoe.
Tiafoe’s clay court numbers don’t look that bad being 8-6 on the year, but he did reach the Final in Houston which is a fast clay-court – almost like a slow hard-court equivalent. Since the start of 2024 removing Tiafoe’s efforts at Houston, the American is 6-10 on clay and his record at Roland Garros is really bad.
Tiafoe is 5-9 across his French Open main draw career including his first-round win this year – think the veteran Spaniard can cause an upset.
These are the type of games that concern me with Holger Rune – against little known opposition opposed to the bigger names, and I think this goes at least to four sets or potentially five.
Emilio Nava beat the tricky van de Zandschulp in straight sets in the first round, and the American is producing a monster clay season on the challenger circuit. Nava is 33-11 on clay this year, and was one set away from winning four consecutive challenger titles on clay.
Rune dropped a set to Bautista Agut in the first-round – I think Nava causes more headaches for the Dane than the veteran Spaniard did.
A really strong season by the Romanian who kicked off 2025 reaching the third-round of the Australian Open.
Cristian has rolled that form into the clay courts, going 7-4 in the lead-up and reaching the Final of Rabat last week, with the Romanian winning her first-round match 6-1 6-0 against Birrell.
Sara Bejlek caused a massive upset in the first-round destroying Marta Kostyuk, and although the Czech played really well through qualifying, her 2025 hasn’t been that strong going 9-9 which includes 4-4 on clay where she had not beaten anyone inside the top-100. Will be a huge effort to back-up off the Kostyuk upset.
Value Bet
Broke out at the Australian Open reaching the Round of 16 including upsetting Pegula in the third-round, and continued to perform with a 15-8 record leading into the French Open.
Now 12-3 on clay in 2025 including beating the seeded Fernandez in the first-round, I really think the Serbian is progressing nicely into a top-20 calibre player.
Collins is just 12-7 on the year, and although she’s played well on clay in the lead-up I think the underdog in Danilovic can really trouble the veteran American who is in the midst of the longest farewell tour we’ve seen for a long time.
SGM
Cristian (W) / Ostapenko (W) / Tauson (W) / Svitolina (W) / Paolini (W) / Navone (M) = $3.92
