Tennis Tips - French Open Day 13 Tips

We’ve got an all-Italian affair in the Men’s Semi Finals, while red-hot favourite Alexander Zverev is two wins away from securing the first major of his career – can he handle the expectation?

Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli

Flavio Cobolli

Under 7.5 Aces

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$1.89

The market for this all Italian Semi-Final looks spot on – Cobolli should be winning, but Arnaldi has played well against his fellow countryman across their career. The underlying concern is how Arnaldi’s body will hold up – which adds a huge risk to total games and game handicap bets for mine.

As a result, I’m looking at aces and I think this line is slightly high for Cobolli. These two have played a lot of tennis with and against each other across their short careers, and in their five previous meetings the aces and ace percentage for Cobolli is extremely low.

This French Open, Cobolli’s ace percentage is solid at 7.6% which would have him 13th from the top-50 players on clay this year – prior to the French Open, Cobolli was going at 5.4% on clay this year, but historically against Arnaldi that number is just 1.5% across five matches.

When the two met at Roland Garros last year, with the total games landing bang on the line for this match with 38, Cobolli had just one ace from 122 serves. In their five meetings the most aces Cobolli has served against Arnaldi is just two – so to serve eight in this Semi Final is a big ask.

Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev

Over 37.5

Total Games

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$1.79

‘House Money’ Mensik claimed another scalp, and has incredibly reached the Semi Final after going off in a wheelchair at the end of his second-round with Navone.

The Czech has played with a weight lifted off his shoulders, taking the scalps of De Minaur, Rublev and Fonseca after his second-round full body cramp, and this has to be a concern for Zverev.

The German has a reputation of struggling under pressure or expectation, and this is by far the best chance Zverev will have of winning a major.

The pair met in Madrid a month back, which was a tight encounter going to three sets with Zverev getting the win, but the total games went well over.

There’s no way we’ll see this settled in three sets, and with both players strong servers we’ll see at least one set go to seven sending this over 37.5 games.

Multi

Zverev / Cobolli = $1.70

Sports Journalist

Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.