Qinwen Zheng beat Aryna Sabalenka at Rome only a month ago – can she cause another upset in tonight’s Quarter Final?
Featured Betting Sites
Use Code: SEEK050
Launched May 2025Use Code: SEEKER500
Use Code: SEEKER
Use Code: SEEKER500
Use Code: SEEKER500
Use Code: SEEKER500
Use Code: SEEKER
Use Code: SEEKER500
Login to View Offers!
Use Code: SEEKER500
Login to View Offers!
Use Code: SEEKER500
Use Code: SEEKER500
What are you prepared to lose today?
Set a deposit limit.
Best Bet
The narrative is that Swiatek is back, but it took everything she had to come back from 6-1 2-0 against Rybakina, and I think Svitolina could cause some problems similar to what we saw in the Wimbledon 2023 Quarter Finals.
Post her 2024 Roland Garros Championship, Swiatek hasn’t quite been at the same level. Against top-20 opposition on clay, her four wins have gone over 20.5 total games while she lost the other two matches.
As for Svitolina, her last 16 completed matches on clay against top-10 opposition, 75% of them have gone over 20.5 total games – this includes last match against Paolini and against Sabalenka in Madrid a month back.
This screams of over games with a potential upset.
Next Best
The Italian is in fine form in 2025, especially on clay, with his three losses this lead-up being against Alcaraz twice, and Jack Draper.
As a top-50 player, Musetti has covered his game handicap in eight of his nine matches on clay across his career against players ranked between 9 and 20 – and Frances Tiafoe fits that profile.
As for the American, he’s quite the opposite. Across his career, in his six matches as a top-50 player on clay against players ranked 6-20, Tiafoe has covered just once – it was the only win he recorded back in 2019.
Tiafoe was one of the players Musetti had previously covered against in their meeting in Rome back in 2023, and although it’s been a great run by the American it’s about to come to an end.
Value Bet
Think this contest will be a lot more dangerous for Sabalenka than the odds suggests. Although the Belarussian has a 6-1 career record over Qinwen, their first six meetings from 2023 to March 2025 were all on hard courts.
It’s the most recent match which would give the Chinese some hope, with her straight sets win over Sabalenka in Rome a month ago – the only clay court meeting the two have had over their career.
Qinwen is putting together a low-key elite resumé on clay since being bundled out of last year’s French Open. She’s now 21-3 since Roland Garros 2024, which includes a win in Palermo, a gold medal on these very courts at the Paris Olympics, and a Semi Final run at Rome. If she’s got any chance, she has to win the first set – think she can really take it to the world number one.
Multi
Svitolina vs Swiatek Over 20.5 Games (W) / Alcaraz (M) / Musetti (M) = $2.40
