Two of the best Men’s Semi Finals in recent memory with Alcaraz coming back from the dead, and Djokovic doing the impossible against Sinner. Will it be Grand Slam title 25 for Novak, or does Carlos complete the career Grand Slam?
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic
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The handicap and total games have been set well by the bookmakers, so I’ll take a different approach for the Men’s Grand Slam Final and look at the aces.
Djokovic and Alcaraz have faced off in five majors across their career, and it hasn’t come close to this ace total in all five matches.
| Event | Ace Total |
| 2025 US Open | 11 |
| 2025 Australian Open | 15 |
| 2024 Wimbledon | 13 |
| 2023 Wimbledon | 11 |
| 2023 French Open | 11 |
If this gets to five the line could be in danger, but in these matchups they’re averaging 3.6 aces per set – so even if it does go the distance, there’s every chance it goes under the total of 19.5.
As for the match, we should never doubt Novak Djokovic but I do think Carlos Alcaraz will be too good despite the Semi Final cramping.
It was a tactical masterstroke by Djokovic against Sinner – but statistically it was the worst rated service + return points percentage of any winner this Australian Open.
This being said, Djokovic has played extremely well against Alcaraz across his career with the only blip at last year’s US Open where the Spaniard won in a convincing straight sets. With 25 Grand Slam titles on the line, expect Djokovic to take a set early, but the Spaniard has shown maturity beyond his years this tournament and will regroup to win in four.
