Tennis Tips – Australian Open Day 9 Tips

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Best Bet

Ben Shelton -2.5

Game Handicap

$1.84

The American always shows up for the majors, in particular the Australian Open where he’s got a great record here, and has looked really strong so far.

Although Casper Ruud leads the head-to-head 2-1, the last time they met was two years back, where it’s been the last 12 months where we’ve seen the rise of Shelton inside the top-ten.

Since July last year the American is 11-3 on hard against players ranked between 11 and 50, while Ruud has barely played anyone inside the top-10 on hard courts over the last 12 months.

Next Best

Madison Keys +2.5

Game Handicap

$1.96

Understand Pegula is absolutely flying, but we’ve seen her do this before in the first week of majors before being found out by the quality in week two.

Madison Keys has a 2-1 head-to-head record over Pegula, winning the last two matches on hard court emphatically.

Across the three matches they’ve played, Keys has a service points / return points won percentage of 110 vs the 90 for Pegula – this is a huge discrepancy. It’s clearly a matchup the 2025 Champion likes, and I’m surprised to see her the underdog in this.

Value Bet

Lorenzo Musetti

Match

$2.12

I know we shouldn’t be surprised by Lorenzo Musetti – he is the world number five in the world now, but the Italian has had an awfully difficult path this Australian Open and come out of it looking fairly impressive with wins over the in-form Collignon, along with Sonego and Machac.

Understand that it was a difficult situation for Fritz in Wawrinka’s last Australian Open match, but I thought the American was fairly poor and the stats indicate this too.

Musetti has won three of their last four matches, and although Fritz beat the Italian in the ATP Finals on hard court, I think Musetti can turn the tables.

Multi

Shelton (M) / Anisimova (W) / Rybakina (W) = $2.05