Iga Swiatek is yet to drop a set this Australian Open, but can her third-round opponent cause a major scare to her quest of winning her first Australian Open title?
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Best Bet
I really think this will be a much bigger challenge for Shelton than the odds suggest.
Vacherot’s numbers against top-100 opposition on hard court the last 12 months is better than the American’s, and his numbers this Australian Open are fairly similar to Shelton.
These two have met previously when both of them were off the grid – it was Shelton winning 6-7 7-6 6-4 back in 2022. Their careers have taken different trajectories since, but the Monegasque has been incredible since winning the Shanghai Masters as a qualifier ranked outside the top-200. Shelton wins, but Vacherot will make him earn it.
Next Best
Has performed well this Australian Open, in particular in the first-round win over the dangerous Sonay Kartal.
Anna Kalinskaya has played well against Iga Swiatek in their three meetings, despite trailing the head-to-head 2-1.
Swiatek has won their last two meetings, both last year, but has not covered the -5.5 game handicap from three attempts. The Pole’s serve has been below par so far this Australian Open – could Kalinskaya cause a major upset?
On ability alone, Mensik should win this easy – but it’s going to be pushing 40 degrees in Melbourne on Saturday and it will peak around 6pm – when the Czech faces American Ethan Quinn.
I’ve always had concerns around the best-of-five fitness of Mensik, and winning Auckland in the lead-up means he hasn’t had a break leading in.
Quinn has played well in both matches this Australian Open, and although Mensik comfortably beat him in Cincinnati he can make this uncomfortable for the Czech in these conditions.
Value Bet
Talking about the conditions, how will 38-year-old Novak Djokovic handle it? He’s always struggled in the extreme Melbourne heat across his career, which opens up some opportunities for the giant-killer Botic Van De Zandschulp.
The Dutchman beat Djokovic at Indian Wells last year, and who can forget the upset win over Alcaraz at the 2024 US Open.
Can he give Novak a scare, who is yet to be challenged yet this Australian Open?
Multi
Fritz (M) / Mensik (M) / Khachanov (M) / Keys (W) / Noskova (W) / Mertens (W) = $3.27
