Tennis Tips - Australian Open Day 5 Tips

Aussie wildcard Rinky Hijikata is in action on Day 5 after a straight sets first-round win, but he might find his second-round match a bit more difficult against an opponent who burst on the scene last year with a Masters 1000 win.

Best Bet

Rudd vs Munar Over 38.5

Total Games

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$1.83

Casper Ruud didn’t do himself any favours in the lead-up losing an exhibition tiebreak to the retired Roger Federer, and although it wasn’t that serious it did highlight his underwhelming form on hard courts.

Ruud does beat who he’s supposed to beat but against top-50 opposition over the last 12 months he’s 7-7 on the surface.

Ruud and Munar met here last year – the Norwegian winning in five sets. A few weeks after that they met again in Dallas, with Ruud winning the deciding set in a tiebreak. This will go to four sets – and it wouldn’t surprise if it went the distance.

Next Best

Sebastian Baez -3.5

Game Handicap

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$1.90

Never been too good on the hard courts, but it might have clicked for Sebastian Baez who knocked off the big serving Perricard in the first-round off the back of reaching the Final in Auckland.

He faces Luciano Darderi who is a pure clay courter. The pair have played on six occasions across their career with Baez leading 4-2, and winning their only hard court matchup at last year’s US Open.

Although Darderi is ranked inside the top-25, statistically his numbers on hard court over the last 12 months resemble a player ranked around 100 – the Italian is 8-13 on hard over the last 52 weeks, including being 3-11 against top-100 opposition. Baez’s hard court form line should be enough to cover.

Valentin Vacherot -3.5

Game Handicap

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$1.86

Watching a bit of Vacherot after he came from outside the top 200 last year to win the Shanghai Masters, the Monegasque backed it up with a Quarter Final run at the Paris Masters, and has shown enough in the lead-up and his first-round straight sets win over Damm.

He faces Rinky Hijikata in this, who has slid outside the top-100 with an 8-16 record against top-100 opposition in 2025.

Although he’ll have the crowd support, I just don’t know whether Hijikata has the weapons to compete with the Vacherot.

Kessler vs Pegula Over 19.5

Total Games

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$1.80

Insane price for the American in this against Jessica Pegula who has a history of bundling out of majors unexpectedly.

There’s not much difference between Kessler and Pegula on paper – against top-50 opposition on hard the last 12 months, Kessler is 12-9 and Pegula 17-14.

Pegula is 10-7 on hard against players ranked between 20 and 50 over the last 52 weeks, with 9 of her last 11 going over 19.5 games.

Last time they met it hit 20 games – think it could be much more this time with a deciding set on the cards.

Value Bet

Rafael Jodar

Total Sets

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$2.45

Think we could see an upset here when 19-year-old Rafael Jodar faces Jakub Mensik.

The Spaniard is very much built for the hard courts despite his European heritage, and has had a big 12 months going 51-14 on the challenger circuit.

Although he’s only played the one match against top-100 opposition over his career, it was a win against Learner Tien at the Next Gen Finals – not a bad scalp.

Mensik has struggled in best of five matches across his career so far, and will be happy to get past the 34-year-old Carreno Busta from being 2-1 sets down. Winning Auckland in the lead-in could be a blessing or a curse for the Czech – how will he hold up against the talented Spaniard?

Multi

Baez (M) / Vacherot (M) / Khachanov (M) / Noskova (W) / Anisimova (W) / Bencic (W) = $5.14

Sports Journalist

Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.