Novak Djokovic will be one of the few fresh players in the second week of the Australian Open, managing to have a 4-day break after his third-round win – expect him to capitalise.
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Best Bet
The big serving American has been on fire this Australian Open, but this aces line is far too high.
Shelton has covered 15.5 aces once this tournament, which was against the lowly ranked Dane Sweeny – but in this Quarter Final he faces Jannik Sinner, one of the best returners in the world.
When they met at the Australian Open last year, Shelton had a 5.9% ace percentage, resulting in hitting just seven aces for the match. At the ATP Finals Shelton only served six aces in a best-of-three, and in November at the Paris Masters he had seven.
Going at around 3 aces per set, even if this goes the distance there’s a chance he might not cover this!
Next Best
Novak Djokovic might have to buy Jakub Mensik a beer, because the Serbian hasn’t played since Saturday, giving him a huge advantage in this match against Lorenzo Musetti.
The Italian has been on court nearly double the amount of time as Djokovic including playing in 40+ degrees over five sets against Machac.
Djokovic’s record against Musetti tells the story – he’s 9-1 against the Italian, including 4-0 on hard court, and although Musetti took a set off Novak in their most recent meeting in the Final of Athens, this was played indoors. Earlier in 2025 in Miami, Djokovic won 6-2 6-2.
Musetti has had a great tournament, but everything points to Djokovic advancing in this in either three or four.
Value Bet
Although I did take Anisimova to win the tournament, Jessica Pegula has been super consistent this Australian Open and was far too good for Madison Keys last round.
Anisimova’s style is very similar to Keys which works well for Pegula, and last year’s Wimbledon and US Open Finalist hasn’t been outstanding so far despite not dropping a set – it was a really grind against Wang last round, while the score line in her second-round match against Siniakova was flattering.
Pegula knows what it takes to beat Anisimova – she holds a 3-0 career record over her fellow countrywoman, albeit the last two matches when Anisimova was ranked outside the top-100. The way Pegula is playing, she can cause an upset here.
Multi
Sinner (M) / Djokovic (M) / Swiatek win a set (W) / Pegula win a set (W) = $2.80
