Australian Alex De Minaur may be playing the best tennis of his career after dismantling Alexander Bublik in the fourth-round – can he keep it up against the world number one?
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Best Bet
Both players play their fair share of long matches, and have done so against one another across their career.
Gauff leads the head-to-head 2-1, with Svitolina’s win coming at the 2021 Australian Open against a 16-year-old Coco. But it was in 2024 where the pair met on two occasions including the US Open, with Gauff winning both in three sets.
The American’s record against players ranked 11-20 at hard court majors is a concern at 2-5, losing her last four prior to her fourth-round win over Muchova – but the trend is the last four she’s played have gone over 20.5 games.
Next Best
The head-to-head record doesn’t look good for De Minaur trailing 5-0, but the numbers in four of those matches were actually quite tight suggesting the Australian won’t be blown away by Alcaraz in this.
Of the five matches they’ve played, the first set in all five have gone over 9.5 total games, with three of those going to seven, and De Minaur winning one of those.
Two of Alcaraz’s first sets this tournament have gone to a tiebreak – $4.30 is a nice price to see one in the first set here against the in-form Australian.
Value Bet
The German surprised me when he beat Cerundolo so convincingly last round – I just can’t see Zverev maintaining that level though against Learner Tien, mainly because he never has across his career.
Zverev has beaten top-50 players consecutively in straight sets at majors just once in the last four and a half years, with the German notorious for dropping a set regardless of who he’s up against.
Tien beat Zverev in their only hard court battle in early 2025 – his style of play may take Zverev some time to adjust, but I do think the German will be too good in the end despite the American taking a set at some stage.
Multi
Zverev (M) / Alcaraz (M) / Gauff (W) = $2.60
