It’s the third consecutive major Sinner has faced Alcaraz in a Grand Slam Final, and I think the Spaniard can reclaim the US Open title as the outsider in this.
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Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz
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Value Bet
As per the men’s previews, the Wimbledon-US Open double is extremely rare, only done twice in the last 13 year – both by Novak Djokovic in 2015 and 2018. Although Jannik Sinner has made it to the Final, I still think Alcaraz is in the box seat despite the underdog status. The Spaniard might have put together his best fortnight of Grand Slam tennis across his career, not dropping a set on his way to the Final.
Alcaraz has a 6-2 record against Sinner on hard courts over their career which does include Cincinnati where Sinner withdrew down 5-0 in the Final.
The Italian didn’t look 100% when he was playing against Auger Aliassime in the Semi Final, and when these two players face off it only takes the smallest of margins to give someone the edge.
Bookmakers have also struggled to pick the winner between these two across their career, with 10 of the 15 matches won by the underdog.
I think this price is based off the Wimbledon Final which Sinner won in four, but circumstances were very different with Alcaraz entering off a French Open victory while also dropping five sets leading into the Wimbledon Final while the Italian didn’t drop any. The shoe is now on the other foot – I think the Spaniard gets it done in 4 sets, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it went the distance again between these two.
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