We hit the business end of the tournament at the Quarter Final stage, with two Australians in action who are both huge chances to advance to the Semi Finals of the US Open.
Best Bet
It’s been quite the renaissance by Frenchwoman Caroline Garcia, with the 28-year-old turning back the clock and playing arguably the best tennis of her career.
Since mid-June, Garcia has a 30-4 record. She’s 13-1 against the top-50 during this stretch, 5-0 against top 20 and 4-0 against the top 10. Her third-round win was emphatic against 2019 Champion Bianca Andreescu, and with recent hard court wins over Sakkari, Pegula and Sabalenka at Cincinnati she’s currently on another level.
Garcia faces 18-year-old Coco Gauff, who is super-talented but the American has struggled against top 20 opposition this year with a 3-6 record on hard court winning just 7 of 20 sets. Garcia will apply plenty of pressure on the teenager and should lock away a Semi Final birth.
Next Best
Casper Ruud is really known as a clay courter due to his incredible record on the red dirt, including reaching the Final at the French Open, but his hard-court record has gone under the radar.
The Norwegian has a 16-6 record on hard courts this year, but it’s what he’s done against top 20 that’s impressed. When facing top 20 opposition on hard courts this year, Ruud is 5-3 and of the remaining players in this draw, he’s ranked third behind just Alcaraz and Nadal for set percentage won against top 20 with 57.9% as well as game percentage won with 53.6%.
Matteo Berrettini’s five-setter against Davidovich Fokina raised a few alarm bells in what should have been a much easier contest against a clay courter, and with the Ruud forehand absolutely on fire this tournament and with much more tennis under the belt this year, the Norwegian should be too good in a match that could go the distance.
Value Bet
Forget about the win over Serena, the Samsonova scalp was enormous by Ajla Tomljanovic, ending the Russian’s 13-match win streak. Don’t let the Australian’s ranking of 46 fool you, she didn’t rack up any ranking points in her Wimbledon Quarter Final run and enters another Quarter Final of a major when she’s up against Ons Jabeur.
Jabeur was great against Verokina Kudermetova, coming back from 5-2 to win the first set and winning the match in straight sets, but the Australian ticks off that form line, with Tomljanovic also defeating the Russian twice in the last month.
Winning 7 of her last 21 matches, the Aussie has won her three of her last four matches on hard court against top 20 opposition and has proven she can win on the big stage this week. She’s a huge chance to upset the Tunisian at $2.81, but happy to take the +3 game handicap paying $2.08.
Daily H2H Multi
Garcia / Kyrgios / Ruud = $3.76
