Plenty of Americans feature on Day 8 of the US Open, including two that are huge chances of advancing to the Quarter Finals in the women’s draw.
Best Bet
Despite dropping the second set of her third-round match, Jessica Pegula was dominant against Yue Yuan winning 18 of a possible 27 matches. She is capable of making a huge run at Flushing Meadows.
The American faces Petra Kvitova, who had to fight hard to beat Garbine Muguruza, including saving a match point in the final set tiebreak.
Historically the Czech has struggled at majors against top-10 opposition – since 2012 she has a 2-9 record, which includes her win over Muguruza. Pegula is definitely playing at top-10 level this year, and her power and consistency will be too much for Kvitova.
Next Best
It doesn’t appear thay Rafael Nadal is playing at the level we’ve become accustomed to. The Spaniard needed four sets to get through both of his first two rounds, although he was far more impressive against veteran Richard Gasquet.
But Nadal now gets a significant step up in competition in world number 26 Frances Tiafoe. The American enters the Round of 16 without dropping a set, and can match Nadal for power while also being able to cover the court.
A lot of Tiafoe’s sets end up going to 7, including five of the nine sets he’s played this US Open, and of the top 50 players this year he’s 8th for tiebreaks per set at 24.8%. In front of the Flushing Meadows crowd, Tiafoe can certainly take a set off Nadal, but even if he doesn’t, don’t rule out the total games over 35.5 off the back of a couple of tiebreaks.
Love what Cam Norrie is doing, but the price and line for Andrey Rublev in this fourth-round match is too good to ignore.
The Brit has moved to number 9 in the world off the back of two incredible years, but his performances against the top 15 players during this period is still questionable. Norrie is 3-9 against that ranking range in 2022 and 6-10 in 2021.
Although Norrie beat Rublev last year in San Diego, the Russian has a solid record against top-10 opposition going 14-15 since 2019 including 2-2 this year. If Rublev can find the lines early, he’s a huge chance at odds and the +3.5 game handicap should cover in a potential five-setter.
Value Bet
Aryna Sabalenka is currently playing with house money after the ultimate great escape in the second round after being down 6-2 5-1 against Kaia Kanepi. The Belarussian has the career record over her next opponent Danielle Collins, but the American is such a fierce competitor and will no doubt apply the heat on Sabalenka in this.
It’s been a difficult year for Sabalenka, with a 3-5 record against the top 20, including a 0-3 record on hard courts. Collins has a 12-3 hard court record this year off the back of reaching the Final of the Australian Open, and has never shied away from a fight against top-10 opponents.
Playing in front of the home crowd will bring the best out of Collins, and she’ll apply the heat back on the Sabalenka serve.
Daily H2H Multi
Pegula / Sinner / Alcaraz / Nadal = $3.25
