Nick Kyrgios has been flying in 2022, and potentially the only player that can stop him in this US Open draw will face him in the Round of 16. We should see a classic when the Australian faces Daniil Medvedev.
Best Bet
If they didn’t have to meet in the Round of 16, there would be no doubt that Daniil Medvedev and Nick Kyrgios would be favourite and second favourite for the US Open – and although Medvedev is currently the favourite to take out the title, a Kyrgios win will see the Australian go into outright favouritism.
Kyrgios holds a 3-1 record over Medvedev across their career, with Medvedev winning their only meeting in a major; a four-set win at this year’s Australian Open, where the total games hit 41.
The Kyrgios serve is a tough one to crack. Of the top 50 this year, he’s got the highest hold percentage at 93.4%. As a result, the Australian is ranked 9th for tiebreaks per set at 24% due to his low break rate, which is just at 18.4%.
We’ve seen tiebreakers been played in their last three meetings including their most recent meeting at Montreal a few weeks back. It should only take one tiebreak to cover the 40.5 games, but due to the level these two have been playing at don’t be surprised to see a couple of sets go to 7.
Next Best
The Russian has very much gone under the radar during the US Open, but Veronika Kudermetova is playing great tennis and is a huge chance to advance to the Quarter Finals.
She is yet to drop a set this tournament and will face Ons Jabeur here, a player she’s very familiar with. The Russian faced the Tunisian at San Jose a month back, recording a 7-6 6-2 win to take her career record to 3-0 against Jabeur.
As mentioned in the Day 5 US Open preview, Jabeur appears to still be recovering both physically and mentally post losing the Wimbledon Final, and after just getting past Shelby Rogers in three sets, it’s hard to see her beating the in-form Russian in this.
odds partner=”topsport” selection=”Karen Khachanov +4.5″ market=”Line – Marin Cilic vs Dan Evans” price=”$1.85″ link=”https://www.topsport.com.au/Sport/Tennis/ATP_Grand_Slam_-_US_Open/Matches?promocode=seeker”]
I’m not normally much of a Karen Khachanov fan, and up against the extremely in-form Pablo Carreno Busta there’s a high element of risk here, but the career record is too good to ignore.
Khachanov holds a 5-3 record against the Spaniard, winning five of their last six meetings. On hard court the Russian’s record improves to 4-1, not dropping a set against PCB in their last four hard court meetings and in three of those meetings he entered as the lesser ranked player of the two.
The $2.92 on offer for a Khachanov win is tempting, but based on their historical battles the +4.5 game handicap appears a safe play.
Value Bet
Matteo Berrettini is trending towards another US Open Semi Final with a strong win over Andy Murray, and now faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the fourth round.
The Spaniard is talented, especially on clay, but his hard-court record is poor with the quality of opposition so far this US Open all outside the top 50. When facing top 50 opposition this year on hard courts, ADF has a 1-9 record. Last year it wasn’t much better at 4-9. From that 1-9 2022 record, the Spaniard is 0-6 against top 20 opposition.
The Italian’s power should be too much for ADF in this and while a straight sets win is certainly not off the cards at $2.67, I’m much more comfortable taking the Berrettini / total games unders double.
Daily H2H Multi
Berrettini / Ruud / Samsonova / Kudermetova / Gauff = $5.71
