There’s plenty of value on offer in the women’s draw on Day 4, including American Jessica Pegula who is a big chance to go deep at her home major.
Best Bet
Qinwen Zheng scored a huge first round win over Jelena Ostapenko, and you just get the impression that the Chinese teen could be this year’s Emma Raducanu story.
Qinwen’s win over Ostapenko was her third top-20 scalp since the French Open, and now faces Anastasia Potapova in the second-round. The Russian has also been in good touch reaching the Final in Prague in July, but it appears a false economy.
Potapova has a 1-9 record on hard courts this year against opponents ranked higher than her, and against the top-50 on the surface she’s 1-5. The Zheng form line is much stronger, and should have no issues covering the -1.5 game handicap.
Next Best
Jessica Pegula is a genuine chance to go all the way here at Flushing Meadows, and off the back of a 6-2 6-2 first round win she should be too good here against Aliaksandra Sasnovich.
The lead-in for the American has been extremely strong, reaching the Semi Final at Toronto and Quarter Final at Cincinnati, and although she hasn’t faced Sasnovich previously, Pegula shouldn’t have too much trouble based on her recent form.
The Belarussian has really struggled against quality opposition on hard courts across her career – since 2021 she has a 1-6 record against top 20 opposition on the surface. Although she made the Final at Cleveland in the lead-up, there was no real scalps taken. The American should win in straight sets and cover the -3.5 game handicap.
The giant killer has done it again with another top 15 scalp at a major and now is a big chance of advancing to the third round against Katerina Siniakova.
Alize Cornet entered the US Open off the back of a Round of 16 run at Wimbledon and reaching the Quarter Finals of the Australian, emphasising her ability to step up in the majors. On the other hand, Siniakova has really been languishing since her breakout in 2018, with a 79-79 record from 2019 onwards.
The Czech has really struggled at both hard court majors across her career, and against top 50 opposition over the last two years she has a 5-15 record. Her first-round win over the 197th ranked Taylor Townsend was unconvincing, so expect the Frenchwoman to waste no time covering the -3.5 game handicap here.
Although Grigor Dimitrov had no troubles getting past Steve Johnson, the Bulgarian will face more issues against a much tougher opponent in Brandon Nakashima.
Nakashima enters the US Open with Quarter Final runs at Atlanta and Los Cabos, along with featuring in the Round of 16 at Wimbledon where he took finalist Nick Kyrgios to five sets. The 21-year-old American’s game stacks up, and with fitness still a query for Dimitrov the $2.18 on offer for Nakashima to win appears great value. Take both that and the +2 game handicap.
If you can look past Borna Coric’s first-round match where he was taken to five sets by qualifier Enzo Couacaud, the $2.01 on offer is incredible value against Jenson Brooksby.
Winning Cincinnati in the lead-up, Coric took care of Rafael Nadal, Roberto Bautista Agut, Felix Auger Aliassime, Cam Norrie and Stefanos Tsitsipas – an incredible form line which should not see the Croatian enter this as an outsider.
Brooksby had a good week in Atlanta reaching the Final, but was 1-3 over the last month leading into the US Open. Take the win over Dusan Lajovic with a grain of salt, the Serbian was 4-10 on hard courts this year and is at the very end of his career. Coric will provide a much more difficult challenge.
Value Bet
She may be 37 years old now, but veteran Kaia Kanepi is winding back the clock, moving from 115 in the world to start 2022 to be ranked 34 entering the US Open. She’s a huge chance to upset sixth-seed Aryna Sabalenka here.
Kanepi holds a 2-0 career record over Sabalenka, both occasions when the Belarussian was ranked inside the top-ten dating back to just last year – the most recent being the Round of 16 at this year’s Australian Open.
Sabalenka has had a year she’d rather forget with a 25-17 record, 12-10 on hard courts and a 5-11 record against top-35 opposition in 2022. The veteran Estonian a huge chance at the value of $2.74.
Daily H2H Multi
Kecmanovic / Qinwen Zheng / Pegula / Cornet = $4.58
