It’s Semi Final day for the women, with four genuine contenders in the mix for the title.
Caroline Garcia v Ons Jabeur
In what was arguably her most important singles match of her career, Caroline Garcia passed the test with a straight sets win over Coco Gauff in front of the Arthur Ashe crowd.
Gauff needed to serve well, and she did, making 78% of first serves, but Garcia completely dominated that second serve winning 11 of 15 points, taking the ball from 1m inside the baseline. This is where I expect the Frenchwoman to get the better of Ons Jabeur.
Of the top 50 players in 2022, Jabeur is ranked 45th for first serve percentage going at 56.6% which will give Garcia plenty of looks. Due to the pace of that second serve, Jabeur is ranked 40th of the top 50 for percentage of points won on second serve excluding double faults at 52.8%.
The Tunisian has just won two of her six matches against top 20 opposition on hard courts this year, while Garcia is 4-3, with those four wins all coming since August. With a 31-4 record since mid-June, Garcia is just playing at another level and is the deserved favourite in this.
Iga Swiatek v Aryna Sabalenka
Iga Swiatek continually harassed the Jessica Pegula serve in their Quarter Final winning 61% of receiving points, and although Aryna Sabalenk’sa serve held up against Karolina Pliskova, it’s going to be tested to an inch of its life against the world number 1.
Swiatek holds a 3-1 career record against Sabalenka with all three of those wins coming this year. Each of these wins have been blowouts; 6-2 6-3 on the hard courts of Doha in February, along with 6-2 6-2 and 6-2 6-1 on the clay.
Against top-10 opposition this year, Swiatek is 8-1 after her win against Pegula in the Quarter Final, while the Belarussian is 2-3, with all three losses to the Pole.
Statistically this all points to an easy Swiatek victory, but since Sabalenka’s second-round comeback from 6-2 5-1 down, she’s played somewhat carefree tennis with her serve in the best shape we’ve seen nearly all year. She’ll attack the Swiatek serve and is capable of grabbing a set, but expect the class of Swiatek to be too much in the end.
Daily H2H Multi
Garcia / Swiatek = $2.44