The men’s draw is the most open we’ve seen in nearly 20 years with a first-time Grand Slam winner to be crowned from the remaining players, and despite this a Russian is still going under the radar.
Best Bet
Both Andrey Rublev and Frances Tiafoe put on a masterclass in their Round of 16 matches, the Russian smashing the favoured Cameron Norrie, while Tiafoe upset Rafael Nadal.
Off the back of the Nadal win, Tiafoe is close to even money in this with Rublev, which gives us great value for the Russian who probably would have been a $1.50 favourite if they met earlier in the tournament. The last thing I want to do is discredit the win by Tiafoe, but the Rafael Nadal we saw at this US Open is not the same player we’ve seen over the last 20 years.
The flat and hard ball striking of Rublev won’t give Tiafoe the time he had against the likes Nadal and Diego Schwartzman, which previously troubled the American when they faced at Indian Wells earlier in the year when Rublev was victorious with a 6-3 6-4 win. Winning seven of his last nine on hard courts against top 30 opposition, the Rublev ball will cause too many issues for Tiafoe in this.
Next Best
The girl from Buffalo will have the support of this New York crowd, and Jessica Pegula can send a serious shockwave through this US Open draw against Iga Swiatek.
If you told me Pegula only hitseven winners against Petra Kvitova, I would have said the Czech won in straight sets, but the American’s ball placement and ability to defend are first class which can cause issues for Swiatek.
The Pole really struggled to get past German Jule Niemeier requiring three sets, and her form line isn’t all that convincing as she’s yet to face a player inside the top 50 this tournament. Since Roland Garros, Swiatek is 0-4 against top 50 opponents, including the last two matches on hard court against Beatriz Haddad Maia and Madison Keys in the lead-up. The +3.5 game handicap looks the play for Pegula, while the $2.74 for the win is great value.
Value Bet
It’s incredible that Danielle Collins managed to even take a set off Aryna Sabalenka in the fourth round, only landing first serves in at 38% including 12 double faults in a nightmare performance.
That’s certainly not Sabalenka’s fault, but I’d much prefer to take Karolina Pliskova’s form line and the $2.08 appears way overs. The Czech has claimed some big scalps this tournament. She entered as the outsider in her second-round match with in-form countrywoman Marie Bouzkova and wiped her off the court, then backed it up with wins over Belinda Bencic and Victoria Azarenka.
Pliskova is 3-0 against top 20 opposition on hard courts this year. As for Sabalenka, she’s 2-4 against top 30 opposition including the Collins fourth-round victory. The Czech won their two meetings last year including straight sets on the hard courts of Montreal, and there’s a lot more trust in the Pliskova serve opposed to Sabalenka.
Daily H2H Multi
Rublev / Pliskova = $3.76
