Jack Draper has his work cut out for him this next round against Carlos Alcaraz, with the Brit already playing three three-set matches so far this tournament. See our outright Australian Open betting previews here.
Best Bet
The return game of Tommy Paul has been on display this Australian Open, and the heroics of Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will come to an end here.
The Spaniard had no right winning his third-round against Mensik but saved match points in the third set to come from two sets down to advance – but this will be different against the class of Paul.
Paul leads the head-to-head 3-0, with their last meeting being a four-set win by the American at the 2023 US Open, with the games landing at 31. With how strong Paul’s return game is, it’s hard to see any tiebreakers in this one.
Next Best
Draper has played his get out of jail card a couple of times this tournament – in fact, the Brit has played five sets in every match so far this Australian Open.
The level Draper is playing at is quite poor, significantly worse than what we expected entering the Australian Open, and with fitness across his career being questioned at Grand Slam level I have no doubt Alcaraz will exploit this.
The Spaniard is playing at the best level of any player left in the draw with a serve and return point percentage of 119.6 this tournament – even though Draper won their last meeting on grass, Alcaraz should win this in straight sets.
Value Bet
The Russian’s record against Donna Vekic unblemished at 2-0 across their career, which Pavlyuchenkova not dropping a set against the Croatian.
The pair met in the first round of last year’s Australian Open with Pavlyuchenkova winning 6-4 6-4, and her hard court metrics across 2024 were better than Vekic including her hard court eLo ranking being 22 compared to 34 for the Croatian.
Although Vekic saluted as our value bet on Friday, this appears a tricky match-up against the veteran Russian.
Daily H2H Multi
Djokovic (M) / Zverev (M) / Paul (M) / Badosa (W) = $2.62
