It was a big second round performance by Dane Holger Rune, and he’s a nice price in this third round match-up against Kecmanovic. See our outright Australian Open betting previews here.
Best Bet
Fritz was dominant in his second-round win over Christian Garin – as our best bet with a line of -7.5, the American obliterated that winning 6-2 6-1 6-0.
He now faces Gael Monfils – the Frenchman clearly better than Garin, but generally we see the Frenchman begin to fade at this stage of majors as a 38-year-old.
The way Fritz has played so far this Australian Open, it’s hard to see the American dropping a set in this which should see him cover the line of -5.5 with ease.
Next Best
The excitement around Fonseca beating Rublev in the opening round was huge – but the Brazilian’s opponent in the Next Gen Final was Learner Tien, and the American has just knocked off Daniil Medvedev to advance to the third round.
Without taking anything away from Fonseca, this is a much bigger result from Tien – Medvedev has been huge at the Australian Open over the last five years now, so it was a huge scalp by the American.
He now faces Corentin Moutet – the Frenchman who beat Alexei Popyrin in the first round. I still believe the Australian beats Moutet if he wasn’t injured, and a lot went Moutet’s way. The Frenchman is an entertainer and thrives as the villain – but a third-round against a little known American isn’t the stage he’s after, and I think his time is now up this Australian Open.
I know the Serbian is coming off a huge win over Hubert Hurkacz, but his form over the last 18 months doesn’t warrant the line to be this close when he faces Holger Rune.
The Dane is ranked five spots higher than Hurkacz, and surprisingly has a better hard-court eLo ranking as well. Rune’s win over Berrettini was big, and this contest with Kecmanovic will be much easier.
Don’t see this being a straight sets affair, but Rune’s number over the last 12 months are significantly better and should cover this with a four-set win.
The Italian made light work of her second-round opponent and is primed for this meeting with Elina Svitolina.
Svitolina struggled across quality opposition in 2024 on hard courts, with a serve and return point percentage of just 90 against top-20 opposition – this ranks the Ukrainian 70th in this metric from the top-100 players.
Paolini’s preferred surface probably isn’t on hard courts, but the Italian’s level has been so strong the last 10 months that she’s now in the top echelon of players on tour – she should win and cover in this.
Value Bet
Ben Shelton from a visual perspective looks the part with the booming left-handed serve and the monster forehand, but Musetti appears a nice price here considering he owns a 2-0 career record over the American including a hard court win in Miami last year.
The Italian’s serve and return point percentage metrics on hard courts in 2024 are significantly better than the American’s, in particular when facing top-20 opposition.
The Shapovalov performance cannot be understated with the Canadian’s last six months being much improved, and this match-up against Shelton appears friendly as one of the better returners on tour. Think Musetti is the wrong price here.
Daily H2H Multi
Tien (M) / Rune (M) / Fritz (M) / Paolini (W) = $4.72
