Coco Gauff is one of the favourites to take out this Australian Open and I’m expecting a dominant third round performance. See our outright Australian Open betting previews here.
Best Bet
Leylah Fernandez is really lucky to get to the third round and Coco Gauff shouldn’t have any troubles here.
The Canadian has been fairly poor – she’s faced two players ranked 100+ to start the tournament, and both were really tight including coming back from a set and a break down against Bucsa last round.
Gauff beat Fernandez at the United Cup in the lead-up 6-3 6-2 which covers this handicap, and I think this time around it could be an even bigger blowout.
Next Best
Novak would want to step it up. He’s faced two kids ranked outside the top-100 to start the Australian Open dropping a set in eachmatch, and only really looking good from halfway through the third set in both matches.
Machac is a massive threat here. The Czech plays well against Novak – he beat the Serbian last time they played in Geneva last year, while he took a set off him and forced a third-set tiebreaker in Dubai the year prior when Machac was ranked well outside the top-100.
Now ranked 25 in the world, the Czech is composed and good enough to challenge the 10x Australian Open Champion while Novak is still clearly finding his feet at Melbourne Park.
Love the price for the 19-year-old Czech in this, and I think he just wins. Super impressive performance against Casper Ruud, and now Jakub Mensik faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina coming off a late 5-setter against FAA.
Great scalp by the Spaniard, but his record against FAA indicated that he was a big chance of causing an upset. But when looking at ADF’s last 12 months, his record on hard court against top-50 opposition is horrible at 4-13 which includes the FAA win.
Mensik is 8-1 on hard court over the last 52 weeks against players ranked 50-75, with his only loss a retirement in Paris late last year. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Czech win in straight sets.
Don’t think the Serbian beats Pegula, but more than capable of scaring her or even forcing a third set.
Danilovic destroyed Samsonova last round, and she enters this year off the back of a strong 2024 where she went from outside the top-120 into 55 in the world, which included beating the red-hot Danielle Collins at the French Open.
Her service and return point percentage won is comparable to Pegula, and one of the better numbers of all players this tournament. Really think Danilovic makes a match of this.
Value Bet
I had high hopes for Shnaider entering this Australian Open but I haven’t been that impressed so far – most recently, her win over Tomljanovic was sub-par.
Donna Vekic had her own second-round battle, but when comparing her numbers to Shnaider this tournament so far, she’s streaks ahead.
Shnaider’s performances on hard courts against top-20 opposition in 2024 were ordinary with a record of 3-7. Have to have something on Vekic to upstage the Russian.
Daily H2H Multi
Mensik (M) / Lehecka (M) / Badosa (W) / Pavlyuchenkova (W) / Gauff (W) = $4.80
