American Taylor Fritz was dominant in his opening round of the Australian Open, and we should see something similar on Day 5. See our outright Australian Open betting previews here.
Best Bet
Christian Garin probably had a handful of chances of winning through to the second round before the draw – drawing Borna Coric was one of those few chances.
Now the Chilean faces Taylor Fritz and it screams bloodbath. The American won through the first-round in 2, 0 and 3, and a similar score line isn’t out of the question.
Fritz beat Garin last year on clay in Munich 6-3 6-4 – a surface the American has struggled with, and a surface that Garin plays his best tennis on. The Chilean has lost his last seven hard court matches against top-50 opposition dating back to March 2023, so I’m expecting another regulation effort by Fritz.
Next Best
Wow, I knew he was talented and there was plenty of hype but what he did to Rublev was ridiculous really. We should expect a drop-off, but it shouldn’t matter – Fonseca’s second-round opponent Lorenzo Sonego isn’t fit to shine Rublev’s tennis shoes.
The Italian really struggled on the Wawrinka serve and although it shows he won in four sets, it was a lot closer than the scoreboard suggested against the 39-year-old. Sonego’s hard court record against top-50 opposition the last 52 weeks is terrible at 4-14, which includes winning just one from the last 10.
Although Fonseca isn’t a top-50 player statistically, he already has a hard court eLo ranking of 21. Let the show roll on for the Brazilian.
Danger game for Khachanov. 1 in 4 underdogs won across the first-round in the men’s draw, and looking at the second-round matches this appears to be a potential upset.
Gabriel Diallo is used to facing the Russian – he played him twice last year, going down in Canada in straight sets but he took a set off Khachanov the second time round in the Final in Almaty.
The Canadian has a tie-breaker rate of 25% which puts him right up there of all players in the top-100, so don’t be surprised to see at least one set go to a breaker and both players to win a set in this.
Another underdog here who I expected to be favourite in this second-round. Marcos Giron faces Tomas Martin Etcheverry, with the Argentine knocking out the 32nd seed in the first-round.
Looks great on paper, but Cobolli entered the Australian Open injured, which is why the Argentine likely started favourite to start with.
Giron statistically has been much better than Etcheverry on hard courts across 2024 according to service and return points won, and beat the Argentine in their only career meeting in 2022.
The Italian Pocket-Rocket continues to get it done on the big stage, and opened the tournament by bagelling her opponent in the first set.
Jasmine Paolini now will face Renata Zarazua who caused a first-round upset over Townsend, but it’s just hard to see how the Mexican will compete in this.
The last five hard court matches against opponents ranked outside the top-50 have gone under this total games line for the Italian, averaging just 16 games per match.
Zarazua’s last six matches against top-50 opposition on hard courts have gone under this total games line too, so we should see Paolini do a number on her opponent here.
Value Bet
Big first-round win by Lucia Bronzetti against Azarenka, and the draw has opened up nicely for the Italian. She now faces Jaqueline Cristian which based on WTA rankings appears it will be tight, but it won’t be.
Despite winning her first round match against Petra Martic, Cristian required a third-set tiebreaker to get it done and actually won less points than her opponent – for reference, Martic was a lucky loser who had a diabolical 2024.
If Bronzetti is even close to the Azarenka level, she’ll storm through to the third round in straight sets.
Daily H2H Multi
Fonseca (M) / Fritz (M) / Paolini (W) / Svitolina (W) / Collins (W) / Bronzetti (W) = $3.50
