It was a roller coaster 2024 for Andrey Rublev, how will he fare against the new kid on the block – Joao Fonseca? See our outright Australian Open betting previews here.
Best Bet
Very surprised to see Emma Navarro close to even money in this first round clash with countrywoman Peyton Stearns.
Navarro holds a 4-1 record over Stearns, with the latter’s only win six years ago when they were both ranked outside the top-500.
Stearns has played reasonable tennis in the lead-up, but her record against top-10 opposition is 0-8 across her career. Navarro has been poor leading in, but she was 32-14 on hard courts last year including a Semi Final run at the US Open, with an 11-1 record against opposition ranked 40-75 on the surface. Should win.
Next Best
Not much difference in terms of their ATP rankings, but the hard court eLo ranking suggests otherwise with Bergs ranked 66 and Diaz Acosta 243.
The Argentine is a pure clay courter – he’s 4-12 on hard courts the last 52 weeks, and enters at this price due to recording a couple of wins in Auckland before Monfils hammered him in the Quarter Final.
Bergs has performed much better on hard courts than his ranking and record suggests when looking at his serve and return points won on the surface last year. Perhaps this year it will click for the 25-year-old, starting the year strong reaching the Final in Auckland.
This screams five sets. Griekspoor’s ranking slipped to 40 and therefore isn’t seeded here, but he played plenty of tennis against top-10 opposition which initiated the decline.
The Dutchman was 2-10 against top-10 opponents last year on hard court – ironically one of those wins was against Hurkacz at the start of 2024 when the Pole was ranked 8 in the world. But when you look what he did against players ranked 11+, Griekspoor had a hard court record of 19-9.
Career record is split at 2-apiece, with every match relying on a deciding set – it went to five at Roland Garros in 2023, and since then they’ve met three times with two of those deciding third sets being tiebreaks. If you need any more convincing this will go overs, Hurkacz has the second highest tiebreak percentage of all top-50 players over the last 52 weeks at 31.3%, and Griekspoor isn’t far behind ranked fourth at 28%. We could see close to 60 games.
What a first-round match-up. The wraps on Joao Fonseca are insane – many touting him to join the next elite group with Sinner and Alcaraz.
The 18-year-old dominated the Next Gen Finals which included wins over Fils and Mensik, then tore his way through the challenger in Canberra in the lead-up before dropping just 12 games in three qualifying matches.
Rublev has been a staple inside the top-10 for a long time now and will make the young Brazilian earn it – either way, neither of these players will be advancing in straight sets and I’m expecting a tiebreak or two along the way.
Ranking is very similar on paper, but Townsend’s hard-court eLo ranking is a lot better than her Mexican opponent with the American ranked 38 and her opponent 93.
Townsend had some big tournaments last year – she reached the Round of 32 in Miami, the Quarter Final in Toronto and the Round of 16 in Cincinnati.
Zarazua was 4-8 on hard court against top-100 since the start of 2024, with most of her hard court tennis being played at challenger level. Hard to see her challenge Townsend who is capable of playing good tennis on the surface.
Value Bet
Pablo Carreno Busta is not even close to the same player pre-injury a few years ago, winning just three of his last 12 matches – one of those wins on clay.
Majchrzak has a 2-0 record over Carreno Busta across their career, albeit both times on clay, but the Pole enters this Australian Open notching up plenty of hard court wins on the challenger circuit.
Since September 16 last year, Majchrzak is 12-4 on hard court including winning through qualifying, and although his level of competition wasn’t great, Carreno Busta probably sits in that level now ranked 184 in the world.
Daily H2H Multi
Bergs (M) / Popyrin (M) / Navarro (W) / Yastremska (W) / Paolini (W) / Townsend (W) = $7.53