Tennis Tips - Australian Open Day 13 Tips

Can Djokovic back it up after upsetting Carlos Alcaraz when he faces second seed Alexander Zverev on Men’s Semi Finals Day?

Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev

Over 39.5

Total Games - Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev

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I think Zverev can consider himself very lucky to advance to the Semi Final – despite a 4-set win that appears somewhat regulation on paper, Tommy Paul really had every chance of winning in straight sets with the American serving for the set and holding a set point in both the first and second set.

If he produces something similar here against Novak Djokovic, the Serbian won’t give him the same opportunities.

Zverev’s record at hard court majors against top-10 opposition as a top-25 player in the world is poor at 2-7, but he has the scalps of Sinner and Alcaraz in recent times. The common theme is the length of these matches though. In nine of these matches, with seven of them going over 39.5 games – the two that went under were both against Alcaraz.

The pair haven’t played since August 2023 where Djokovic won 7-6 7-5 at Cincinnati, but their five meetings prior, all in 2021, both players won a set. I expect the German to strike early before Djokovic wears him down.

Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton

Under 33.5

Total Games - Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton

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I just don’t know how Ben Shelton will break into the Jannik Sinner serve in this. In their last four meetings, Sinner has held serve 45 out of 47 attempts against Shelton, and in the Quarter Final against arguably the best returner in the world in Alex De Minaur the Italian won 83% of service points.

Shelton is winning just 32.5% of return points this tournament, and although his serve is his primary weapon and he’ll be hoping to force a number of tiebreakers – I just think Sinner is playing too well to not break the Shelton serve and win this in straight sets.

The American did win their first meeting in October 2023, but since then Sinner has won the next four without dropping a set including the Round of 16 at Wimbledon last year – a surface which is probably more suited to Shelton. That match went to 31 games, and I think we’ll see something similar here.

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Dale Crotty

Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.