It’s Women’s Semi Final Day involving the top-two seeds, with Iga Swiatek playing at an insane level this Australian Open.
Aryna Sabaleka vs Paula Badosa
Sabalenka has a tendency to play in tight Grand Slam Semi Finals. 4-5 across her career in Semi Finals at majors, Sabalenka has covered -4.5 just once from those nine matches – this was against the unseeded Magda Linette in 2023.
The Belarussian has won the last five against Badosa including three times last year – but this is when Badosa was ranked outside the top-50.
The Spaniard is closing in on her career best level and does play a similar style to Pavlyuchenkova, who provided a bit of a blueprint on how to exploit Sabalenka. This will be a lot tighter than the odds suggest, but still think the Belarussian advances to her third consecutive Australian Open Final.
Madison Keys vs Iga Swiatek
Iga Swiatek has never played this well at the Australian Open before, and I expect her to carry that momentum into this Semi Final with Madison Keys.
The Pole is winning a ridiculous 55% of points on return, and the Keys serve was a concern in her Quarter Final against Svitolina. The American’s first serve percentage dropped a fair way to 60%, but it’s the second serve that you can just see Swiatek pulling apart with the average speed just 122km/h.
The pair have met five times across their career with Swiatek leading 4-1, and all five matches have been very lopsided – all of them going under 19.5 total games. The way the Pole is playing, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was over quickly.
