Jannik Sinner and Alex De Minaur will face off for the tenth time across their career, but it will take an almighty effort from the Australian who is yet to beat the Italian. See our outright Australian Open betting previews here.
Best Bet
Think the sheer power of Keys is going to cause Elina Svitolina a whole heap of problems here.
The Ukrainian is 3-7 against top 20 opposition on hard court since returning from childbirth in 2023 – her wins have been Paolini, Kasatkina and Azarenka. While Vika is a reasonable striker, the other two wins have been against retriever / placement types.
Keys holds a 3-2 career record over Svitolina with their most recent meeting back in Adelaide in 2022, where the American won 6-2 6-4. Don’t expect it to be that easy this time around, but still think Keys will cover this handicap and advance to the Semi Finals.
Next Best
Looked more unwell than injured in his fourth-round win over Holger Rune, so with a two-day break in much better conditions at night, we should see Sinner back at full strength.
That’s a genuine problem for Alex De Minaur – his record against Jannik Sinner is disastrous. The Australian is yet to record a win over the Italian, trailing 9-0 across their career. From the 21 sets they’ve played, De Minaur has won just one set – over four years ago in Sofia.
Although the De Minaur service game has improved, he’s still convincingly behind the remaining players in the draw for serve points percentage won, and it’s hard to see the Australian threatening here.
Value Bet
It’s a crazy short price for Ben Shelton here and although I’ve been against Lorenzo Sonego most of the tournament, his numbers suggest he’s a real chance here.
Shelton and Sonego’s serve point percentage won this tournament is near identical – Shelton going at 73% while the Italian is 72.6%, but it’s the return game of Shelton that really challenges this price.
The American has by far the worst return point percentage of the remaining players at just 31.5% – that’s nearly 5% points worse than Sonego, and around 10% behind the rest of the field. Understand the American’s serve is his weapon, but he hasn’t exactly faced big servers with the likes of Musetti and Carreno Busta.
I know the Italian is yet to face a top-50 player this tournament but Shelton is vulnerable I feel, with the Italian winning their last meeting in 2023 – albeit on clay. Happy to play the price and take the handicap in this.
Daily H2H Multi
Sinner (M) / Sonego to win a set (M) / Swiatek (W) / Keys (W) = $2.50
