Despite the short-price, Aryna Sabalenka could find herself in a battle when she faces Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. See our outright Australian Open betting previews here.
Best Bet
The American has been outstanding this tournament, but this is clearly his biggest test.
Of all players left in the Australian Open, Alcaraz has the best serve and return rating, but he’s closely followed by both Paul and Zverev who are on 117. In Paul’s case, this is led by his return game where he’s nearly winning 50% of return points this Australian Open.
Paul has a great record against Zverev, with a 2-0 head-to-head – both on hard courts when the American was ranked outside the top-30 in the world. He’s now just outside the top-ten, is a former Semi Finalist here and is a real danger for the German.
Next Best
Sabalenka should win, but Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has caused her a few issues across their career.
The Russian owns a 2-1 record over Sabalenka, which includes winning their only hard court match in 2019 – the two-time Champion was top-ten in the world in all three of their matches, while Pavlyuchenkova has been ranked around the 30-40 range on all occasions.
Two of their three matches have gone to three sets, and based on their serve and return rating this tournament, it’s a lot closer than expected with Sabalenka on 112 and Pavlyuchenkova 109. The Belarussian should still be too good, but expect the total games to clear.
Value Bet
Some real value for the Spaniard here, whose 2024 hard court numbers are very similar to that of Gauff.
With their head-to-head record split at 3-apiece including 2-2 on hard court, I thought we would see Badosa’s price around the $2.50 mark in this. Their last two meetings went the distance, eventually won by Gauff, but the Spaniard was nowhere near the level of form she is now – in May last year she was ranked in the 120s, and she’s now ranked 12th in the world.
I can quite easily see the Spaniard causing an upset here – but even if she doesn’t this will go to three sets.
Daily H2H Multi
Paul +4.5 (M) / Sabalenka (W) / Badosa to win a set (W) = $3.85
