Racing Tips – Turnbull Stakes 2022 Runner-By-Runner Preview

Incentivise - Horse Racing Tips

The Turnbull Stakes is a key lead up to the Cups and potentially, the Cox Plate. In the last two years it has been won by Verry Elleegant and Incentivise. It is run under a set weights and penalties scale, different from a handicap or conventional weight for age.

1. Knights Order (14)
J: Jordan Childs (57.5kg) T: Waterhouse/Bott

Racing well but would need genuinely heavy ground to threaten here and he won’t get it.

2. Duais (5)
J: Joshua Parr (57kg) T: Edward Cummings

Won a strong Australian Cup here in the autumn but has disappointed so far this spring. Can improve sharply on a firm track though. Well enough found in the market for my liking, but her best is good enough.

3. Numerian (12)
J: John Allen (56.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham


4. Profondo (7)
J: Craig Williams (56.5kg) T: Richard Litt

Another Sydneysider down here in search of firm ground. His first up run was good, then he didn’t do much at both runs since, although is the going an excuse? To me, he seems to have more excuses than runs on the board and this is D Day for him.

5. Great House (15)
J: Brett Prebble (56kg) T: Chris Waller

Not the worst here. Flew home first up over the 1700m under a big weight and only better suited out in trip. Probably ends up getting back to near last from the draw, but look for him to be flashing home at nice odds.

6. Smokin' Romans (6)
J: Ethan Brown (55.5kg) T: Maher/Eustace

Won his way into the Caulfield Cup field last start winning the Naturalism Stakes. However, he has a 7Kg swing vis a vis the third placegetter in that race, Gold Trip. Nonetheless, going well enough and draws to get the right run. Place hope.

7. Milford (16)
J: Patrick Moloney (55.5kg) T: Mike Moroney

Needs to improve significantly on what he did first up.

8. Inspirational Girl (13)
J: Jye McNeil (54.5kg) T: Danny O'Brien

Yet to race beyond 1800m but gives every impression of getting it – the question is how well she is going? Mr Brightside put a margin on her last start but was found wanting in the Underwood. Not totally dismissing her but not keen to be on.

9. Chapada (9)
J: Daniel Stackhouse (54.5kg) T: Mike Moroney

Backed from $26 into $20 and you can see why. He ran third in this race last year, and he closed off really well in the Naturalism. Doesn’t win out of turn (3/36 lifetime) but a good run wouldn’t surprise.

10. Alegron (2)
J: Damien Oliver (54.5kg) T: James Cummings

Won the VRC St Leger here in the autumn and comes off a last start win in the Kingston Town up in Sydney. Getting back on to a firm surface probably isn’t ideal and he shapes as a better chance in a race like the Caulfield Cup.

11. Young Werther (1)
J: Damian Lane (54.5kg) T: Danny O'Brien

Ran second in this race last year, beaten only half a length. Went well enough first up although you would have liked him to be stronger through the line. Likely to end up in an awkward spot from barrier one. Bit against him.

12. Gold Trip (10)
J: Jamie Kah (54.5kg) T: Maher/Eustace

Very well placed under the set weights and penalties scale. He is the joint highest rated horse in the field but has to carry only 54.5Kg. However, is he going well enough? His last start effort in the Naturalism was good, but he has every possible chance there, although, he was giving away a lot of weight. Jamie could win on a broomstick so there’s that. I can’t get him as short as $3.70.

13. Crystal Pegasus (8)
J: Michael Dee (54.5kg) T: Chris Waller

The first two runs of his prep should be forgotten as he doesn’t handle heavy ground. Nonetheless a form reversal probably sees him run top six at best.

14. Luncies (3)
J: Harry Coffey (54.5kg) T: Kris Lees

One paced stayer who wants wetter, further and easier. Might make a nice jumper one day.

15. Maximal (17)
J: Ben Melham (54.5kg) T: John O'Shea

Harder to catch than an empty tram in peak hour. Can go around without me.

16. Surefire (11)
J: Blake Shinn (54.5kg) T: Chris Waller

Disappointing last start but perhaps he was ridden too close? Best form is capable of getting into the finish.

17. Hezashocka (17)
J: Daniel Moor (54.5kg) T: Price/Kent Jnr

Prefer in handicaps at this stage of his career.

Best Bet

Two here are worth a gamble at huge odds. Great House and Chapada. Hardly anything would surprise in this field.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.