It’s a sensational day of racing at Flemington with Derby Day being the ultimate raceday for the purist. In Sydney, the Golden Eagle will take centre stage at Rosehill. Flemington should be genuinely soft, if not heavy, while Rosehill will be improving towards good ground.
Best Bet
Kiwi mare La Crique looks superbly placed in the Group 1 Empire Rose. This is not a strong Group 1 and she looks a potential superstar mare, with six wins from ten starts including a dominant victory at the highest level in her homeland last start. She has good tactical speed so James McDonald should press forward, take luck out of the equation, and prove way too good for them.
Recommended Price: $2.00
Confidence Level: 5/5
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More Racing Tips
Sandpaper was a terrific winner at Caulfield over 1400m and looks terrific value in the opener to a carnival. The query with him is the step up to the mile but he toughed it out to the line in a strongly run race last start so I suspect he will run it out. William Buick should be able to give him the perfect run on speed from barrier five.
Recommended Price: $5.50
Confidence Level: 3/5
The Astrologist is a real straight track specialist who looks well placed here. The Leon and Troy Corstens trained gelding ran sixth in the Manikato Stakes last week but was slowly away then posted wide throughout. The visors come off which should hopefully lead to a cleaner getaway, and his best form is up to this.
Recommended Price: $9.00/3.00
Confidence Level: 3/5
So Dazzling was the Oaks favourite after winner the Oaks Preview here in late September but the shine seemed to go off her after finishing third at Newcastle last start, but there wasn’t a lot wrong with the run. She is probably better suited out to the 2500m on Thursday but her trainer John Sargent has done the Wakeful-Oaks double before and this filly looks an attractive price.
Recommended Price: $6.00
Confidence Level: 3/5
Old Flame was a complete forgive run last start in the Weekend Hussler at Caulfield. He simply never got a crack at them in the straight. The gelding’s prior form was excellent and with James McDonald up from barrier two, he should get the perfect run.
Recommended Price: $4.00
Confidence Level: 3.5/5
Hezashocka looks excellent value in the Rosehill Gold Cup. The Victorian gelding comes off a last start fourth in the Craven Plate at WFA and drops 5.5Kg into an easier race. He ran well enough there – finishing fourth – to suggest he can figure here. Ideally drawn and gets Jamie Kah to ride. Great value.
Recommended Price: $9.00/3.00
Confidence Level: 3/5
It’s a strong edition of the Coolmore and they should run it hard, allowing something to finish over the top. Buenos Noches looks the ideal candidate. He only went down a nose behind subsequent Everest winner Giga Kick last start and his run on style should be suited to this race, although he can hopefully settle a couple of pairs closer this time.
Recommended Price: $6.00
Confidence Level: 3.5/5
Mazu is having a terrific preparation, coming off narrow defeats in the Premiere Stakes and then the Everest. That looks the right form for this race and from barrier one he should get the right run in the race. Sam Clipperton will need some luck to get off the fence but if he gets it, he should prove too strong.
Recommended Price: $3.00
Confidence Level: 3.5/5
The Vase form is usually the right form for the Derby and that should be the case this year. Berkeley Square was terrific on the clock winning last week in virtually the same time as Anamoe won the Cox Plate over the same trip. Being a half brother to a Derby runner up he has the pedigree to run the trip and he draws to get the run of the race.
Recommended Price: $3.00
Confidence Level: 4.5/5
International horses have a very good record in the Golden Eagle, albeit without winning, and Light Infantry is clearly the best credentialed one yet. The stallion placed second at Group 1 level at his last two starts, recording some impressive ratings in the process. If he brings that form out to Australia, he should be too good for them.
Recommended Price: $3.00
Confidence Level: 4/5
Asfoora is the best horse in the race but barrier two at the end of a long day on wet ground is a real concern. Veranskova on the other hand should be able to find the best ground from barrier nine. She is a brilliant mare on her day with a great turn of foot and loves wet ground. She can be highly competitive here in a race that could end up being more competitive than the market suggests.
Recommended Price: $12.00/4.00
Confidence Level: 3/5
Quaddie
Flemington: 1,2,6,7,14,15/1,2/14/2,3,5,6,8,9,10,15,16,17,18
