Racing Tips – Memsie Stakes Runner-By-Runner Preview

The Memsie Stakes is the first Group 1 race of the new Victorian racing season and a cracking field has been assembled. There is rain about Caulfield this week but it is meant to ease off closer to Saturday, meaning we should be looking at ground on the worse side of soft, or better side of heavy.

1. I'm Thunderstruck (9)
J: Mark Zahra (59kg) T: Price/Kent Jnr

Last year’s Golden Eagle winner and while he is coming off a winless autumn, he didn’t dent his reputation given terrific performances in the Doncaster among other races. Typically fries fresh, like soft ground and right in this.

2. Cascadian (7)
J: Blake Shinn (59kg) T: James Cummings

Early money has come for the eight year old ($9.00 to $7.00) which surprises me. Not that he isn’t a classy galloper, he is, but we know what we are going to get with him and he doesn’t have the ceiling of some of the others here. Respect the early money but I’ll pass.

3. Alligator Blood (1)
J: Damien Oliver (59kg) T: Waterhouse/Bott

Now that the issues surrounding his ownership have been sorted we have a racehorse very capable of figuring here on his Brisbane form. There is recent history of Stradbroke form holding up well here. However, soft ground is a major query and I would need a Soft 6 or better to consider backing him.

4. Nonconformist (4)
J: Jordan Childs (59kg) T: Grahame Begg

Genuine stayer – he ran second in the Caulfield Cup last spring – who will need the run here.

5. Western Empire (12)
J: Damian Lane (59kg) T: Danny O'Brien

Yet another top class horse to come out of Perth raced by Bob Peters but needs to prove he belongs. In any event, O’Brien trained stayers almost always take a run or two to find their best so I’m happy to risk him.

6. Callsign Mav (14)
J: Jamie Mott (59kg) T: Danny O'Brien

Ex-Kiwi who probably has a win in him somewhere, just not here.

7. Elephant (11)
J: Daniel Moor (59kg) T: E & D Browne

Disappointed in the PB Lawrence a fortnight ago and impossible to have on the back of that.

9. Dragon Leap (2)
J: Michael Dee (59kg) T: O'Sullivan & Scott

Kiwi who has been racing well at home but will need more distance to be winning anything over here.

10. Lightsaber (6)
J: Luke Nolen (58.5kg) T: Peter Moody

Lining up for his third season of racing and doubt he has another level to go to, which he will need in order to be winning these kinds of races.

11. Illation (11)
J: Jamie Kah (58.5kg) T: Price/Kent Jnr

Made a big impression winning three straight in the late autumn and he’s got more wraps than a late night kebab stand. No doubt he has looked impressive but I want to see him do it against better quality.

12. Tofane (3)
J: Jye McNeil (57kg) T: Mike Moroney

Previous connections clearly thought she had enough as she was sold for $3.1 million back in May. Nonetheless she is here, her best can be competitive but she’s not getting any younger and others are preferred.

13. Duais (10)
J: Josh Parr (57kg) T: Edward Cummings

Classy staying mare but she wants further than this.

14. Snapdancer (5)
J: Ethan Brown (57kg) T: Maher/Eustace

Ticks so many boxes. Comes in off a shorter break than key rivals and she has run exceptionally well off this gap between runs before. Should get a relatively uncontested lead. Handles all ground. She’s been set for this and is clearly the best value in the race.

Best Bet

Snapdancer is an outstanding each way bet.

For the quaddie, I’ll be throwing in I’m Thunderstruck, Alligator Blood, Illation and Snapdancer.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.