The Melbourne Cup is Australia’s greatest race, and the one that truly stops the nation. This year’s Cup is a relatively weak edition, and with the forecast rain it should be run on a heavy track at Flemington.
The pace will be on from the outset with Knights Order and Serpentine, drawn in the two widest barriers, likely to press forward and take up the running.
This race will be a true test of stamina, with the ability to handle the conditions being paramount.
Runner-up in the Caulfield Cup before being a total forgive run in the Cox Plate. Remarkably, he is topweight for this race despite having won a single race from fifteen career starts. Suspect that the 57Kg is a bridge too far for him, especially in what is likely to be a fast run race. No interest in being on him at this price or anything close to it.
Recorded back to back Group 1 wins earlier this year, but her form this spring has been ordinary, and her wet track performances have been hit and miss. Combine that with a genuine question mark at the two miles and the mare has little appeal, despite the Cummings name in the racebook.
Sydney Cup winner in the autumn on a Heavy 10. The barrier isn’t a major negative for him because he will go straight to the front – hopefully on better ground out wide – and he is a horse who is better off setting a genuine pace anyway. Might not have the class to win it, but with his proven ability to run the two miles out strongly and handle the wet, he is one to be on.
Clearly the best run in the Caulfield Cup when Jason Collett made some inexplicable decisions on her. After the line she was very strong as well. Will she run two miles? It’s an open question, but the way she hit the line at Caulfield indicated she will, and you can find some jumping form in her pedigree too. A four time Group 1 winner, she is the leading local contender.
Imported gelding who had the best run in the Caulfield Cup but only plugged away to finish fifth. That is likely the ceiling of his performance here, and he shapes as a big risk at the trip for mine. Entitled to be big odds.
Long aimed to get into this race with a winnable weight and it’s mission accomplished. Fits a different profile than recent imports that have tasted success in the Cup but his form looks good enough for what is a relatively weak edition of the race. William Buick would want to ride him a hell of a lot better than he rode anything on Saturday though, and the wet is a query. Looks the right price – major player.
Won the Curragh Cup – which has been a good Melbourne Cup formline at times – back in June, but SP’d $41 and was beaten out of sight in the Irish St Leger. Not the worst at huge odds.
The hot favourite for the Cup is a Northern Hemisphere three year old and they have a terrific record in the race of late, with two winners and two placings in the last six years from just a handful of runners.
However, Rekindling and Cross Counter won with 51.5 and 51Kg. Clearly the handicapper has awoken to the NH 3YO form as Deauville Legend has been given 55Kg to carry this year.
There are plenty of queries with him even if his form does look strong. This race is vastly different to anything he has ever contested, he is a complete unknown on wet ground, not to mention that he still races like an immature horse.
Plus, the winners of the race have come from seasoned international stables, and with due respect to James Ferguson, he does not fit that criteria.
Kerrin McEvoy has a lot of experience and won’t be overawed by the occasion but he has had 30 rides in races over 2400m or further since the start of last season for zero winners. He’s not the rider he once was.
Therefore, the favourite won’t be in my numbers at anything close to these odds.
Veteran stayer who comes in off an unusual prep having had his last run at Rosehill on Saturday. Nevertheless, I like this strategy and Joe Pride is a genius trainer. Would have preferred he drew wide, but he is tough, honest and will relish the wet ground. Can win at big odds.
Won this race three years ago and has barely troubled the scorers since. I’ve given up trying to catch him and wish you good luck if you are going to try and do so.
Went into reverse at the 600m in the Cox Plate and he is meant to be some kind of chance here? Please. Cannot win.
The second of the Northern Hemisphere three year olds. Ran second in the Epsom Derby this year at $151 and his performances since have reflected those odds. Seemingly has all the drawbacks of Deauville Legend without the positives. Pass.
Owner Lloyd Williams has won this race five times but he looks unlikely to claim a sixth with this one time Epsom Derby winner. To be fair, he did run an improved race in the Archer on Saturday but he will need to take another drastic leap into this. Likely to press forward from the wide draw and help set a genuine tempo, but suspect he will be found wanting.
Won the Adelaide Cup earlier this year but that form seldom holds up and he doesn’t appear to be going as well now as he did then. Not one I could be on.
Ran sixth in this race last year and that is as good as it will ever get for him. Pass.
Not a winning chance but I would not be shocked at all if he finished in front of some much shorter priced runners as he will stay and handles the likely conditions. One to think about for Top 10 markets, head to heads and such.
Bounced back from a couple of indifferent runs with a dominant Geelong Cup win last start and the form out of that race has held up well enough. If the race was going to be run on a firmer surface, I would rate him as one of the leading chances, but genuine heavy ground is a query, although not big enough to take him out of contention altogether.
Won her way into the race by taking out the Bart Cummings before running second to Francesco Guardi – whose connections didn’t bother to come here – by a decent margin at Moonee Valley. Top eight chance and that is likely being generous.
Ran $3.90 favourite in the Caulfield Cup so starting price profile alone demands at least some respect here. With a better ride at Caulfield he might well have finished closer too. His other wet track and staying form has tended to be quite good. Going in all exotics.
Ran ninth in this race last year and I would be amazed if she performed as well this time.
Shaped as one of the favourites for this race six months out but two woeful performances this spring have put paid to that. Impossible to have.
Won the Bendigo Cup last Wednesday – after having every conceivable chance in the run – by a head, holding off a 77 rated horse when conceding only 0.5Kg. Making up the numbers.
If you go back to his European form, he has a nice profile for this race. Of course that would mean ignoring his more recent, and relevant, Australian form, which says he has got no chance. Expect an aggressive on pace ride and that could spark some improvement, but he needs it.
Tease of a mare who is a genuine stayer and handles wet ground, and has just 50Kg. Plus, she comes off a nice last start third in the Metropolitan. There are some aspects of her profile that have appeal, but I think the price is crazy for a mare who has had plenty of chances at good level races and always failed to take them.
Best Bet
I’ll be backing three horses here at big odds. Knights Order, Montefilia and Stockman.
In addition to those, I will be taking Without A Fight, Comorra, Arapaho, Emissary, and Smokin’ Romans in wider exotics.
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