The Cox Plate is the weight for age championship of Australasia and known, rightfully, as the race where legends are made. The 2022 edition has attracted a terrific field.
The state of the track at Moonee Valley will be critical to the outcome. Melbourne is forecast to get plenty of rain later this week and with the Friday meeting, there will be plenty of wear and tear on it. Expect genuine soft ground, if not heavy.
Disappointing at his last two runs but sitting outside of Alligator Blood on both occasions hasn’t helped. From the inside draw he is likely to get a softer run this time, and he will certainly appreciate some cut out of the track. Seems well and truly short enough though.
I wish he had drawn a gate but he remains a winning chance. There was a long head between him and the short priced favourite Anamoe in the Caulfield Stakes yet he is $13 compared to $2.30 for Anamoe. He put to bed any doubts on him at 2000m last start and he is a winning chance here.
From the wide draw there is probably no option but for him to push forward and take up the running, and that will likely take too much out of him late. It’s very hard to see him figuring in the finish from that draw.
Another whose chances aren’t helped by the wide draw. They are helped, however, by the prospect of some rain. Probably ends up getting dragged back to near last from out there and it’s going to be too big an ask for him.
Ran fourth in this last year – well beaten – when arguably in better form. Coming off a last place finish in the Caulfield Stakes, there is no case to be made for him.
Produced a superb trial for this race last week when second in the Caulfield Cup under top weight, when caught three wide throughout. Love the fact that he is on the quick back up. Love blinkers going on for the first time. Love that Jamie Spencer is coming out to ride him. Love the fact he gets wet ground. Don’t love his overall winning strike rate (1/14). Clearly the best value in the race.
Comes off a good run in the Toorak Handicap but he is just making up the numbers here.
Genuine roughie here and not one I am going to try and make a case for.
Nothing about this horse says Cox Plate winner.
Shapes as the most likely winner but $2.30 in present markets is definite unders. Didn’t like the way he got around the turn at Caulfield and he was green when narrowly beaten in this race last year. He cannot afford to do that here. Ultimately, there was less than half a length between him, Zaaki and I’m Thunderstruck last start and he is being priced as if he bolted in. Would need $3 or better to back him.
In poor form and simply hasn’t lived up to the wraps on him as a three year old.
If this can win the Cox Plate, good luck anything beating Deauville Legend in the Melbourne Cup. I won’t claim to be an expert on French form but his seems a tier or two below the best in Europe. Short enough and happy to risk but will be watching the market.
Best Bet
Gold Trip is clearly the best bet in the 2022 Cox Plate but I will be saving on I’m Thunderstruck.
