The Kangaroos opened their Pacific Cup campaign against Tonga with an 18-0 win over Tonga and once it will be no walk in the park with Kristian Woolf selecting an outstanding side that can push Australia.
Best Bet
Mal Meninga’s decision to usher in a new generation of Kangaroos with an eye to the 2026 World Cup has fallen a little flat despite Australia winning both matches and starting a heavy favourite in the final. The Kangaroos were wasteful in their opener and again looked disjointed, though improved, against New Zealand.
Tom Dearden and Mitch Moses are the new-look halves pairing and while there is no doubt plenty of class in the Australian backline with the likes of Tom Trbojevic, it is fair to say Dylan Edwards, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Zac Lomax were not playing their best football in August and September.
The pack is solid with Isaah Yeo and Harry Grant leading it but form is again a question hanging over the likes of Angus Crichtony and Patrick Carrigan. Cam Murray is out hurt with Lindsay Smith to make his Test debut.
It is fair to say that Tonga’s pack at a minimum matches Australia’s. Addin Fonua-Blake was the best prop in the NRL and comes off an incredible game that setup victory against New Zealand, Eli Katoa and Haumole Olakau’atu are two of the form edge backrowers and Jason Taumalolo and Felise Kaufusi are two highly effective veteran middles. There is a chance Keaon Koloamatangi will be a late inclusion pending the birth of his child.
The backline is also very strong. Lehi Hopoate has been excellent at fullback, Paul Alamoti has done well in the centres and Isaiya Katoa comes off a match-winning field goal. The Katoa/Lolohea halves combination is unfashionable but has been effective.
This will be the fourth meeting between the two nations. Tonga won in 2019 and lost by just 18 earlier in the tournament.
The Kangaroos will have plenty to prove after their 30-0 loss last year but this really isn’t a great Australian team and the line looks far too big.
Tonga toured England last year and lost by four and 10 in the first two Tests and lost by 18 to Australia earlier this tournament before a win over New Zealand. They have not lost a Test by more than 22 since 2016, before the big names had decided to play for their nation of heritage.
Tonga with the plus is an outstanding bet.
Same Game Multi
Tom Trbojevic has 57 tries in 56 games at NRL level the last four seasons and has four tries in six Tests for Australia.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has scored three tries in five matches for Australia and nine tries in seven games for Queensland. Stunning he is black odds.
Value Bet
Addin Fonua-Blake is the best tryscoring prop in the NRL with 17 tries across the last two seasons, a huge return for a prop forward. He scored against New Zealand and the way Tonga will score against Australia is arguably through the middle. Love his price.
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