The 2025 State of Origin series kicks off at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night with the underdog Maroons presenting plenty of value.
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Best Bet
They say history never repeats but when it comes to State of Origin, history nearly always repeats.
New South Wales pick a fool to coach. He makes numerous selection blunders. The Blues start favourites. New South Wales are tactically inept. The undermanned Maroons fire on the back of ‘Queensland spirit’. And so it goes.
The Blues made their first mistake – perhaps their fatal mistake – when they rehired Laurie Daley to take over from Michael Maguire. It is hard to truly quantify how awful Daley was at the helm, losing four series out of five. This is a start though: NSW topped 16 points just three times in Daley’s 15 games at the helm while they were held to single digits on six occasions. At Suncorp under Daley, NSW went 2-5 with four of those losses coming by double digits.
From a coaching matchup, there is little question Queensland hold a significant advantage with Billy Slater at the helm. He has proven himself tactically adept over the last three years and he pulls the right rein more often than not with selections.
Daley has already found himself under the gun for the moronic decision to leave out Star prop Terrell May, preferring instead the out-of-form Spencer Leniu and debutant Max King. Picking Hudson Young on the bench was also a massive error that will likely leave the Blues exposed.
Slater has brought in three debutants but will be very happy with his team. Robert Toia is just 10 games into his NRL career and is a risk but he is an undoubted talent. Beau Fermor has been a Star this year while Trent Loiero has all the hallmarks of a Maroons – tough, hardworking, relentless.
There is no way the Maroons should be outsiders at Suncorp, presenting a super bet to pick off the series.
Queensland have won 10 of the last 15 at the venue and Daley struggled in his last stint at the venue.
Expect the Maroons to turn this into a scrap and their more experienced backline should get the job done.
Same Game Multi
Latrell Mitchell has seven tries in eight Origin appearances, crossing in his last four. He matches up with debutant Robert Toia.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has nine tries in seven Origins and nearly always finds himself across the line.
Value Bet
Daly Cherry-Evans won his second Man of the Match award in the series opener last year and can do the same this year. He is Queensland’s leaving playmaker and his form is sound enough. Halves have won nine of the last 15 gongs so the double figures is overs.
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