State of Origin Tips – NSW v Queensland – Game 1 2024

Queensland vs NSW - NRL Tips

NSW embark on a new era with Michael Maguire replacing Brad Fittler after six mostly disappointing years and he has not shied away from risk in his first team selection.

Best Bet

Queensland -1.5

Michael Maguire has wasted no time in making his mark on the Blues team. He has not only shifted camp from Coogee to the Blue Mountains but made a number of changes to last year’s losing outfit. The injury to Dylan Edwards ensures more continuity though with James Tedesco being a last minute recall to the side.

The most egregious of the selection decisions is dropping Api Koroisau for the solid but undynamic Reece Robson – and also playing his clone Cameron McInnes. Starting Isaah Yeo on the bench, playing no back on the bench and plumping for Joseph Suaalii at centre over Latrell Mitchell and Matt Burton were nearly as bad.

There were few surprises with Queensland outside of David Fifita being overlooked for Jaydn Su’A.

It is stunning that Queensland aren’t more heavily favoured.

They have a much better team, particularly through the key positions. Home-field advantage almost does not exist for NSW with the last 10 live games being split five apiece. The Maroons have also been much faster starters in recent years with four Game 1 wins in the last five series.

Maguire has picked a hard-working team but it lacks punch and is without any real dynamic element. The Blues are outmatched with creativity out of dummy half, their kicking game and a plan for their bench.

Just steam into the Maroons.

Same Game Multi

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Murray Taulagi Try
Same Game Multi

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has thrived in the Origin arena with five tries in his four Origin appearances and is in elite tryscoring form at club level.

Murray Taulagi has one try in four Origin appearances and scores in 50% of his club games.

Value Bet

Patrick Carrigan
Player of the Match

Patrick Carrigan is one of the elite middles in the NRL and given how many Origin player of the match awards have gone to middles of late, he looks right in the mix. Both Queensland wins last year saw a middle win – Reuben Cotter and Lindsay Collins – and with how the team is built and the likely low-scoring affair, he is a great bet to win the award.