The Warriors come off a super impressive win over the Storm but they are no morals at home to the lowly Titans given their struggles with dealing with expectation.
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Best Bet
New Zealand could not have been more impressive when absolutely thumping the Storm in Melbourne in one of the most complete performances of the season. It is a win that should mark the Warriors as legitimate title contenders but that is unlikely to mean much this week with the Warriors heavily favoured at home against their bogey team.
The Titans are certainly in form themselves, coming off a 52-10 road win over the Eels.
Gold Coast have won six of the last eight against New Zealand with three straight wins at Mt Smart. The Titans have covered five of the last six meetings.
It is expectation though that drives this bet. The Warriors, simply, do not handle it.
The Warriors are poor favourites. They cover at just 38% when favoured. They are 9-22 against the spread when favoured by more than four. They have failed to cover all 10 games across the last four years when a double digit favourite.
Off a win the numbers are just as bad. They are 8-15 ATS off a double digit win and 5-10 ATS off a win of 20 or more.
Teams off scoring 50 or more cover at 56% but they are 6-0 ATS the last five seasons in Rounds 5-8.
This Titans team is young but it is heading in the right direction and the plus looks one of the better bets of the week.
Same Game Multi
Alofiana Khan-Pereira is the fastest player in the NRL and it has translated to tries with 53 in 55 games.
Phillip Sami is a thoroughly professional finisher who has 74 tries in 148 games and is chasing down the all-time Titans tryscoring record.
Jayden Campbell has four tries in four games this year.
Value Bet
Arama Hau looks a dynamic player who has a bright future and looks like he will be a backrower who will score plenty of tries. He has three in six games this season and when he is switched on can send defences sprawling. Expect him to score or go very close in this one.
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