The Warriors were outclassed by the Storm in Round 6 and will be hoping that a return home will result in a turnaround in form. The Broncos were disappointing in a home loss to the Roosters with many now starting to question whether or not they are the real deal this season.
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Best Bet
If you had backed against the Broncos at the line in the last year you would have turned a healthy profit. They have covered the line in only 29% of games in the last 12 months and have posted a 4-7 line record as an away favourite during that stretch.
Moreover, they have covered only 4 of their last 12 on the back of a loss and have consistently failed to deliver in this matchup. The Broncos have lost their last 5 games outright when facing the Warriors as an away favourite and there is no better time to back a home underdog than with a big start than after a heavy loss.
The underdog has won 7 of the las 10 meetings in this series which makes the Warriors a play across all markets – line, H2H and 13+.
Same Game Multi
The Over has hit in each of the Warriors last 5 games as the underdog, in 9 of their last 13 (69%) when coming of a loss, and in 80% of their home games in the last year.
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak may not be playing but has scored 5 tries in his last 3 from the right wing position so his replacement (Edward Kosi) is sliding into the SGM.
Leiataua has 3 tries in his last 4 for the Warriors and has cross for a total of 4 tries in his last 5 home games.
Value Bet
When the Warriors have gotten the better of the Broncos it has generally been by a significant margin. Their last 11 wins against the Broncos have been by a margin or 9 or more points with 8 of those victories being by a 13+ margin. An average winning margin of 19.7 points across those 11 wins further highlights how dominant they have been when they beat the Broncos.
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