NRL Tips – Storm v Eels – Round 1 2026

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Top-Rated Bookie!Go To Site

Best Bet

Parramatta +6.5

Line

$1.90

Melbourne’s near-perfect Round 1 record under Craig Bellamy is well publicised but for all their wins – as well as their recent dominance over Parramatta – the Storm do look vulnerable with so many players missing.

Melbourne have not only tended to win in Round 1 but they have covered eight of their last nine to boot. They have dominated the Eels of late too with six straight wins that have included five covers. Four of the last five wins have been by 18-plus.

The wholesale team changes though are a major concern for the Storm. Ryan Papenhuyzen has retired. Eli Katoa is out hurt. So is Xavier Coates. Trent Loiero is suspended. Nelson Asofa-Solomona has departed. Likely signing Zac Lomax has not received clearance to play. The Storm are desperately short.

This is a bad spot for them too. Favourites cover at just 41% in Round 1 and underdogs of 6.5 or more cover at a clip of 69%.

Mitchell Moses is key. He is healthy. The Eels over the last four years have seen their win rate increase from 32% to 58% when he is fit.

When looking at Melboune’s big four, their win rate does not drop if one of their halves are out but drops 19% when Harry Grant is out and 12% with no Ryan Papehuyzen.

This number is too big.

Same Game Multi

Under 44.5/Sean Russell Try/Will Warbrick Try

Same Game Multi

$10.00

The under hits at 78% in the opening four rounds the last five seasons when a team plays interstate.

Sean Russell has a lovely record against Melbourne with three tries in five games.

Will Warbrick has scored in four straight against Parramatta and has a super tryscoring record.

Value Bet

Kitione Kautoga

To Score A Try

$5.50

Look for exciting Eels edge Kitione Kautoga to have a monster years for the Eels after his first true season in the top grade where he played 15 games. He is a punishing runner who plays big minutes and despite just two tries at NRL level, knows his way to the tryline with 16 tries in 40 games at NSW Cup level.

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