The 2025 finals series kicks off with an injury-ravaged Storm hosting an out-of-form Bulldogs with a saloon passage to a home preliminary final awaiting the winner.
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It is hard to believe either Melbourne or Canterbury envisaged heading into their opening finals match under such dark clouds of drama.
The Storm’s season got turned upside down when Dally M Medal winner Jahrome Hughes broke his forearm. A suspension to Nelson Asofa-Solomona and a failed HIA to star fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen have further complicated matters for Melbourne. Only the return of Harry Grant offers some reprieve.
Melbourne will play this first final on the back of two straight losses – their first back-to-back defeats of the season.
Canterbury’s problems have been less luck and more poor decision-making. Bringing Lachlan Galvin in unsettled the Bulldogs but dumping Reed Mahoney for Bailey Hayward was a reckless move with no upside. Continuing to play Jaeman Salmon at lock defies belief. Playing a full strength team last weekend was the height of idiocy and it has cost the side Bronson Xerri.
Canterbury’s only win in their final four game came against a Penrith team that rested 16 players.
Melbourne have won nine of the last 10 against Canterbury including a 20-14 win in Round 25 but it is hard not to want to be with the Bulldogs and the points this Friday.
The Storm have covered just six of 18 night games and they have covered just eight of 19 as a single digit favourite at AAMI Park.
This is a nice spot for the Bulldogs to thrive against a weakened Storm side. Canterbury have covered 11 of 15 interstate while they are 12-5 ATS off a loss and 10-2 ATS getting a start of at least a try.
The Bulldogs can be bet in this one.
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Will Warbrick scored in his second game back from injury and has a nice tryscoring record with 34 tries in 53 NRL matches.
Enari Tuala has been in sensational tryscoring form with five tries in his last five games.
Value Bet
Lachlan Galvin has become the most maligned player in the competiton over the backend of the season with his move to Canterbury being characterised as a disastrous failure. While there have been some teething problems though, Galvin has flashed moments of brilliance and has been at his best running the ball. He has three tries in 12 appearances for the Bulldogs. He looks a nice play at big odds.
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